December 18, 2025
PRESS OFFICER: Jose De Haro
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed today the fourth review of the EFF arrangement for Ecuador. The Board’s approval of the review enables the authorities to immediately draw an amount of SDR 438.4 million (about US$630 million), bringing total disbursements to date under this arrangement to about SDR2.4 billion (about US$3.3 billion).
Ecuador’s 48-month EFF arrangement was approved by the Executive Board in May 2024, and augmented in July 2025, providing access equivalent to SDR 3.75 billion (about US$5 billion) to support policies aimed at strengthening fiscal and debt sustainability, protecting vulnerable groups, rebuilding liquidity buffers, safeguarding macroeconomic and financial stability, and advancing the structural reform agenda for sustainable, inclusive, and stronger growth benefiting all Ecuadorians. The authorities’ program has also catalyzed additional financial support from multilateral partners.
Program performance continues to be strong. The authorities met all quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) for end-October 2025 for the fourth review and all indicative targets (ITs) are on track. They have also made substantial progress on the implementation of structural benchmarks and remain committed to further advancing their reform agenda.
The authorities have taken firm actions to strengthen fiscal sustainability and liquidity buffers, while protecting the most vulnerable. Government deposits and liquidity conditions have improved, and sovereign spreads have substantially narrowed. In addition, the authorities continued advancing their ambitious structural reform agenda to safeguard financial stability, enhance governance, and boost private investment and job-rich growth. Continued progress in the reform agenda is expected to achieve significant growth dividends over the medium term.
The ongoing economic recovery continues to surpass expectations amid low inflation, driven by domestic demand and record nonoil exports. The current account (CA) balance keeps on recording sizable surpluses, supporting a sustained rise in international reserves. Liquidity in the financial system continues to support credit growth.
The economy has shown remarkable resilience but is still subject to significant risks, including volatility in oil prices and international financial markets. The authorities’ decisive policy steps and continued strong commitment to reforms and program performance help mitigate these risks. Effective implementation of the authorities’ plan of fiscal consolidation and economic reforms, supported by the EFF arrangement, is projected to maintain public debt on a firm downward trend, supporting the authorities’ objective of further lowering sovereign spreads and regaining access to capital markets.
Following the Executive Board’s discussion today, Mr. Nigel Clarke, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:
“The Ecuadorian authorities continue to make significant progress in implementing their economic program supported by the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. All quantitative performance criteria for the fourth review were met, and all indicative targets are on track. The implementation of structural reforms is also progressing well, with all structural benchmarks for this review achieved. Real GDP has rebounded strongly amid low inflation, driven by a recovery in domestic demand and buoyant nonoil exports. The current account balance continues recording sizable surpluses, supporting a steady improvement in international reserves. Sovereign spreads have substantially narrowed and liquidity in the financial system continues to facilitate higher credit growth. The poverty rate is also declining. Maintaining these accomplishments will require sustained prudent policies and implementation of the authorities’ reform program. Continued support from international partners and bilateral creditors and robust contingency planning are also critical.
“The authorities are taking firm policy actions to strengthen fiscal sustainability and liquidity buffers, while protecting the most vulnerable. They have implemented high-quality revenue and expenditure reforms and remain committed to continue strengthening the fiscal position and placing public debt on a firm downward path, which would eventually facilitate reentry into capital markets.
“The authorities also remain committed to further enhancing the social safety net. They have implemented measures to mitigate the impact of reforms on vulnerable groups, and they continue expanding the coverage of the social safety net for lower-income households, surpassing program targets.
“Efforts to advance the financial sector policy agenda and develop domestic capital markets continue. These include enhancing regulation, oversight, and resolution tools; gradually improving the interest rate system; and launching auctions for domestic bonds and treasury notes. Enhancing the integrity of the financial system is also paramount.
“Structural reforms to boost competitiveness and create jobs are advancing. The authorities are working to attract private investment in high-potential sectors such as mining, hydrocarbons, and energy. They are also working to enhance governance, and to strengthen energy resilience by expanding electricity supply and improving preparedness for natural disasters. Decisive progress on these reforms will deliver substantial medium-term growth for the benefit of all Ecuadorians.”
Table 1. Ecuador: Selected Economic Indicators |
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Projections |
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2024 |
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2025 |
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2026 |
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Output |
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Real GDP growth (%) |
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-2.0 |
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3.4 |
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2.2 |
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Prices |
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Inflation, average (%) |
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1.5 |
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0.9 |
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2.8 |
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Inflation, end of period (%) |
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0.5 |
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3.5 |
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1.7 |
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Public sector |
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Revenue (% GDP) |
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36.8 |
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36.4 |
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36.2 |
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Expenditure (% GDP) |
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38.1 |
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37.6 |
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36.2 |
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Overall fiscal balance (% GDP) |
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-1.3 |
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-1.2 |
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0.0 |
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Primary balance (% GDP) |
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-0.2 |
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-0.1 |
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1.1 |
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Non-oil primary balance (incl. fuel subsidies) (% GDP) |
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-5.4 |
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-4.1 |
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-2.4 |
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Public sector debt (% GDP) |
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53.8 |
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53.2 |
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51.4 |
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Money and credit |
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Broad money (% change) 1/ |
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4.8 |
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4.7 |
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3.4 |
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Credit to the private sector (% change) |
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6.2 |
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8.2 |
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4.9 |
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Balance of payments |
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Current account (% GDP) |
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5.7 |
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5.1 |
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4.1 |
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Foreign direct investment, net (% GDP) |
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0.4 |
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0.6 |
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0.9 |
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Gross international reserves (US$ billion) |
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6.9 |
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10.3 |
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13.2 |
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External debt (% GDP) |
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48.0 |
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50.7 |
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50.0 |
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Sources: Central Bank of Ecuador, Ministry of Economy and Finance, National Statistical Institute (INEC), and IMF staff calculations. |
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1/ M2. |
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