IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2025 Post-Financing Assessment with Uganda
IMF News, January 23, 2026
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- Published: January 23, 2026
Summary of the PFA conclusion
- On January, 12, 2026 the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Post-Financing Assessment (PFA) with Uganda and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.
- The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for the PFA discussions.
- Uganda’s post-pandemic economic performance has been robust, supported by broad-based growth and contained inflation.
- Uganda’s capacity to repay the Fund is assessed as adequate, though subject to risks from potential portfolio outflows, commodity price shocks and further delays related to the oil project.
Macroeconomic performance and outlook
- Real GDP growth rose to 6.3 percent in FY24/25.
- Non-oil real GDP: 6.0 (FY2023/24 actual) and 6.3 (FY2024/25 actual) as reported in the table.
- Inflation stabilized below 4 percent; headline inflation (period average) reported as 3.2 (2023/24) and 3.5 (2024/25).
- Estimated current account deficit narrowed to 6.1 percent of GDP in FY24/25, supported by strong coffee exports.
- Foreign exchange reserves increased to over three months of import coverage by October 2025, partly reflecting strong portfolio inflows in 2025.
- The overall budget deficit widened to 6 percent of GDP in FY24/25 from 4.7 percent in FY23/24.
- Public debt reached 52.4 percent of GDP.
Executive Board assessment and risk analysis
- Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal emphasizing continued robust macroeconomic performance supported by:
- Strong domestic demand, favorable external conditions, and prudent monetary policy.
- Accelerated Real GDP growth to 6.3 percent in FY2024/25.
- Contained inflation and a significantly narrowed current account deficit.
- Increased foreign exchange reserves and improved investor sentiment.
- Fiscal vulnerabilities are on the rise due to elevated overall deficits and a high debt servicing burden.
- Public debt considered sustainable but faces risks from domestic financing pressures and weaknesses in the budgetary process.
- Staff assesses Uganda’s capacity to repay the Fund as adequate under both baseline and downside scenarios.
- Identified downside risks include:
- Large portfolio outflows,
- Adverse terms-of-trade shocks,
- Further delays in the oil project,
- Governance weaknesses.
- Even in a downside scenario involving large portfolio outflows, adverse terms-of-trade shocks, and further delays in the oil project, repayment indicators would weaken but remain within adequate levels; policy buffers would come under strain.
Staff policy recommendations
- Fiscal policy:
- Accelerate fiscal consolidation through durable revenue mobilization and rationalization of current spending.
- Bring forward tax policy measures including rationalization of tax expenditures and strengthening and broadening the tax base.
- Prioritize PFM reforms to enhance budget discipline and limit the scope for accommodating frequent in-year spending requests.
- Implement adopted oil revenue frameworks to safeguard oil revenues and preserve fiscal discipline.
- Monetary policy and exchange rate:
- Retain a data-driven and forward-looking monetary policy approach.
- As inflation risks recede, a gradual easing could support private sector credit growth.
- Strengthen monetary policy transmission and promote financial deepening, particularly through FinTech-enabled lending and improvements in credit infrastructure.
- Adhere to the agreed repayment schedule for BoU advances and limit BoU advances to the limits stipulated under the PFM Act to avoid fiscal dominance and protect monetary policy credibility.
- Maintain exchange rate flexibility to absorb external shocks and preserve competitiveness.
- Continue rebuilding FX reserves in a sustainable and durable manner; pilot gold purchase program offers potential support but must be carefully managed to mitigate financial and operational risks.
- Financial sector:
- Closely monitor rising sovereign–bank linkages.
- Strengthen supervision, risk management, and the regulatory framework, especially in the context of expanding FinTech lending.
Key statistics and projections (selected figures from Table 1)
- Output, prices, and exchange rate:
- Real GDP: 6.1 (2023/24 Act.), 6.3 (2024/25 Proj.), 6.2 (2025/26), 9.4 (2026/27), 6.9 (2027/28), 6.7 (2028/29), 6.4 (2029/30), 5.7 (2030/31).
- GDP deflator: 5.4 (2023/24), 5.2 (2024/25), 4.3 (2025/26), 4.5 (2026/27), 4.6 (2027/28), 4.9 (2028/29), 4.7 (2029/30).
- Headline inflation (period average): 3.2 (2023/24), 3.5 (2024/25), 3.3 (2025/26), 5.0 (2026/27).
- Core inflation (period average): 3.0 (2023/24), 3.9 (2024/25), 4.2 (2025/26).
- Terms of trade ("–" = deterioration): 8.2 (2023/24), 11.4 (2024/25), 2.4 (2025/26), 2.9 (2026/27), 2.3 (2027/28).
- Money and credit:
- Broad money (M3): 8.7 (2023/24), 13.3 (2024/25), 11.8 (2025/26), 14.8 (2026/27), 12.3 (2027/28), 12.0 (2028/29), 12.8 (2029/30), 11.3 (2030/31).
- Credit to non-government sector: 9.7 (2023/24), 10.3 (2024/25), 8.9 (2025/26), 10.5 (2026/27), 9.1 (2027/28), 8.6 (2028/29), 9.3 (2029/30).
- Bank of Uganda policy rate (percent)3: 9.8 (latest available data: BoU policy rate: November 2025).
- M3/GDP (percent): 20.4 (2023/24), 20.7 (2024/25), 20.9 (2025/26), 21.0 (2026/27), 21.1 (2027/28), 21.2 (2028/29), 21.4 (2029/30), 21.5 (2030/31).
- NPLs (percent of total loans)3: 3.7 (latest available data: NPLs: June 2025).
- Central government budget:
- Revenue and grants: 14.1 (2023/24), 14.7 (2024/25), 14.9 (2025/26), 16.0 (2026/27), 16.5 (2027/28), 16.6 (2028/29), 16.9 (2029/30), 17.0 (2030/31).
- Of which: grants: 0.5 (2023/24), 0.6 (2024/25), 0.4 (2025/26), 0.3 (2026/27), 0.2 (2027/28).
- Of which: oil revenue: 0.0 (2023/24), 0.1 (2024/25), 1.2 (2026/27), 1.7 (2027/28), 1.8 (2028/29), 2.1 (2029/30).
- Expenditure: 18.8 (2023/24), 21.9 (2024/25), 21.6 (2025/26).
- Of which: Current: 13.2 (2023/24), 15.2 (2024/25), 15.8 (2025/26), 15.5 (2026/27), 15.9 (2027/28), 16.2 (2028/29).
- Of which: Capital4: 5.6 (2023/24).
- Overall balance: -4.7 (2023/24), -6.0 (2024/25), -6.6 (2025/26), -5.9 (2026/27), -5.4 (2027/28), -5.0 (2028/29), -5.1 (2029/30), -4.8 (2030/31).
- Of which: Net domestic borrowing: 4.1 (2023/24).
- Primary balance: -1.6 (2023/24), -2.3 (2024/25), -2.0 (2025/26), -1.4 (2026/27), -0.6 (2027/28).
- Public debt:
- Public gross debt5: 50.6 (2023/24), 52.4 (2024/25), 54.5 (2025/26), 54.1 (2026/27), 54.3 (2027/28), 54.2 (2028/29), 54.0 (2029/30) [table shows continuation to 2030/31].
- External6: 28.1 (2023/24), 27.3 (2024/25), 25.8 (2025/26), 24.6 (2026/27), 23.6 (2027/28), 22.6 (2028/29).
- Domestic: 22.5 (2023/24), 25.1 (2024/25), 27.1 (2025/26), 28.3 (2026/27), 29.7 (2027/28), 30.6 (2028/29), 31.7 (2029/30), 32.4 (2030/31).
- Investment and savings:
- Investment: 22.4 (2023/24), 22.8 (2024/25), 23.0 (2025/26), 23.7 (2026/27), 24.2 (2027/28), 24.5 (2028/29), 24.9 (2029/30), 25.3 (2030/31).
- Public: 17.4 (2023/24), 17.8 (2024/25), 18.1 (2025/26), 18.5 (2026/27), 18.9 (2027/28), 19.2 (2028/29), 19.8 (2029/30).
- Savings: 14.6 (2023/24), 16.7 (2024/25), 23.2 (2025/26), -0.9, -1.7, -0.5, 0.8 (subsequent entries as shown in table).
- External sector:
- Current account balance: -7.8 (2023/24), -6.1 (2024/25), -4.1 (2025/26), -3.1 (2026/27), -2.7 (2027/28), -1.5 (2028/29).
- Current account balance (excluding grants): -4.3 (2023/24), -3.3 (2024/25), -2.8 (2025/26), -1.8 (2026/27).
- Exports (goods and services): 18.6 (2023/24), 21.3 (2024/25), 27.4 (2025/26), 27.8 (2026/27), 26.1 (2027/28).
- Imports (goods and services): 27.6 (2023/24), 28.9 (2024/25), 27.9 (2025/26), 29.2 (2026/27), 28.5 (2027/28), 25.6, 23.8 (later entries).
- Gross international reserves (in billions of US$): 5.8 (2023/24), 7.5 (2024/25), 8.0 (2025/26), 9.2 (2026/27).
- In months of next year's imports of goods and services: 2.2 (2023/24), 2.7 (2024/25), 3.1 (2025/26), 3.8 (2026/27), 4.4 (2027/28).
- Memorandum items:
- GDP at current market prices (Ush. billion): 203,708 (2023/24), 227,879 (2024/25), 252,221 (2025/26), 288,422 (2026/27), 322,457 (2027/28), 359,757 (2028/29), 401,588 (2029/30), 444,553 (2030/31).
- GDP at current market prices (US$ billion): 53.9 (2023/24), 61.8 (2024/25) [table continues].
- GDP per capita (Nominal US$): 1,174 (2023/24), 1,307 (2024/25), 1,412 (2025/26), 1,502 (2026/27), 1,559 (2027/28), 1,645 (2028/29), 1,734 (2029/30), 1,812 (2030/31).
- Exchange Rate (Ugandan Shilling/US$): 3,778.5 (2023/24), 3,685.4 (2024/25).
- Population (million)7: 45.9 (based on preliminary figures from the 2024 census).
Source: IMF Executive Board Conclusion — Post-Financing Assessment with Uganda, Press Release No. 26/017 (January 23, 2026).