IMF Staff Country Reports

The Russian invasion of Ukraine that started over seven months ago has caused large loss of life, large population displacement, and significant infrastructure damage. The impact on economic activity has been enormous: real GDP has severely contracted, inflation has risen sharply, trade has been significantly disrupted, and the fiscal deficit has ballooned to unprecedented levels. In the immediate aftermath of the invasion, the authorities quickly adapted monetary and exchange rate policies to preserve financial and exchange rate stability. More recently, and to help reverse significant international reserves loss, the exchange rate was devalued, helping to stabilize FX reserves and maintain overall macroeconomic and financial stability. Fiscal policy has been geared to priority spending on defense, social benefits, humanitarian needs, and where possible some fixing of critical infrastructure. Uncertainty around the size of financing needs remains extremely elevated and highly dependent on the length of the war and its intensity, and economic risks loom large, including those related to potential additional damage to critical infrastructure or new disruptions to the agricultural and energy sectors.