IMF Staff Country Reports

Following an acceleration to 4.4 percent in 2024, growth is projected to
sharply slow to 1.7 percent in 2025, in large part reflecting recent trade tensions and
elevated global uncertainty. Inflation is projected to remain well below 2 percent
in 2025, reflecting low tradable inflation and increasing slack in the economy. Reflecting
appreciable uncertainty about the course of global growth, risks to growth are firmly
tilted to the downside, largely stemming from potentially escalating global trade
tensions and tightening global financial conditions. Net risks to inflation are also tilted
to the downside, largely reflecting the downside growth risks, though there are also
some upside risks to inflation, including from supply chain disruptions.