The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises

Economic Issues, September 11, 2000

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The Challenge of Predicting Economic Crises

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Andrew Berg, Catherine A Pattillo
• Published: September 11, 2000
• Series: Economic Issues
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781557758842.051

Overview and purpose

• Authors: Andrew Berg, Catherine A Pattillo
• Date of publication: September 11, 2000
• Purpose: Examines attempts by economists to predict crises by developing early warning systems to signal when trouble may be brewing in currency markets and banking systems.

Key findings and observations

• The integration of financial markets around the world over the past decade has posed new challenges for policymakers.
• The speed with which money can be switched in and out of currencies and countries has increased with the efficiency of global communications, considerably shortening the time policymakers have to respond to emerging crises.
• The pamphlet focuses on early warning systems as tools to detect heightened crisis probability in currency markets and banking systems.

Subjects and keywords (as listed)

• Subjects: Balance of payments, Currencies, Current account deficits, Early warning systems, External debt, Financial crises, Money
• Keywords: Asia and Pacific, balance of payments crisis, crisis, crisis coming, crisis probability, Currencies, currency trader, Current account deficits, debt, deficit, Early warning systems, EI, exchange rate, interest rate differential, market, overvalued currency