Global Financial Stability Report: Getting the Policy Mix Right
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2017
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- Published: April 6, 2017
Overview
- The April 2017 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that financial stability has continued to improve since last October.
- Economic activity has gained momentum and longer-term interest rates have risen, helping to boost the earnings of banks and insurance companies.
- Emerging threats: elevated political and policy uncertainty around the globe; potential for higher risk premiums and volatility if policy in advanced economies leads to a less benign path for growth and debt; a shift toward protectionism in advanced economies could reduce global growth and trade, impede capital flows, and dampen market sentiment.
- Report includes chapters on: policy mix (Chapter 1), effects of prolonged low-growth/low-interest environment on financial intermediation (Chapter 2), and the ability of country authorities to influence domestic financial conditions in a financially integrated world (Chapter 3).
Chapter 1 — Getting the Policy Mix Right: Key findings
- Financial stability improvement since the October 2016 GFSR: stronger economic activity and higher longer-term interest rates have improved bank and insurer earnings and appetite for risk.
- New risks to financial stability stem from elevated political and policy uncertainty globally.
- Potential adverse scenarios:
- Policy developments in advanced economies that lead to a less benign path for growth and debt could sharply raise risk premiums and volatility.
- A shift toward protectionism in advanced economies could reduce global growth and trade, impede capital flows, and dampen market sentiment.
- Policy guidance by region:
- United States: provide incentives for economic risk taking while guarding against excessive financial risk taking that could undermine financial stability.
- Emerging market economies: address domestic imbalances and protect against external shocks.
- Europe: tackle structural challenges in domestic banking systems; avoid rollback of postcrisis reforms that have strengthened oversight, raised capital and liquidity buffers, and improved cooperation among regulators.
- Boxes and special topics include: fragilities in offshore dollar funding, implications of Brexit for financial stability and efficiency.
- Figures and diagnostics: multiple charts on global financial stability map, U.S. corporate sector and valuations, capital flows to emerging market economies, and banking-sector metrics (see listed figure titles).
Chapter 2 — Low Growth, Low Interest Rates, and Financial Intermediation: Key findings
- Analyzes long-term impact of a sustained low-growth, low real and nominal rate scenario on financial institutions and products.
- Context: advanced economies have experienced low interest rates and growth since the global financial crisis; recent increases in longer-term yields do not guarantee an imminent exit from low rates.
- Structural factors sustaining low rates: demographic aging and stagnation in productivity growth.
- Likely effects in a low-for-long environment:
- Yield curves would likely flatten.
- Lower credit demand combined with flatter yield curves would lower bank earnings, particularly for smaller, deposit-funded, and less diversified institutions.
- Long-lasting challenges for life insurers and defined-benefit pension funds.
- Banking may evolve toward fee-based services as household demand for transaction services rises and credit demand falls.
- Aging increases demand for health and long-term-care insurance; low asset returns accelerate transition to defined-contribution private pension plans.
- Demand likely to weaken for long-term savings products offered by insurers in favor of passive index funds.
- Policy implication: policies could help ease adjustment by providing incentives to ensure longer-term stability rather than merely attenuating short-term pain.
- Sections and analytic elements include: Term Structure of Interest Rates; Banking with Low Natural Rates of Interest; Insurance and Pensions in a Low Natural Rate Economy; Asset Allocation, Market Finance, and Financial Stability; Policy Implications and Conclusions; empirical and theoretical annex figures.
Chapter 3 — Are Countries Losing Control of Domestic Financial Conditions? Key findings
- Developed financial conditions indices for a large set of advanced and emerging market economies.
- Global financial conditions account for 20 to 40 percent of the variation in countries’ domestic financial conditions, with notable differences among economies.
- The importance of the global factor does not seem to have increased much over the past two decades.
- Despite significant global influence, countries retain influence to achieve domestic objectives—specifically, through monetary policy.
- Challenges and recommendations:
- Domestic financial conditions react strongly and rapidly to global financial shocks, complicating timely policy responses.
- Emerging market economies are more sensitive to global financial conditions and should prepare for tighter external financial conditions.
- Governments can promote domestic financial deepening to enhance resilience: develop a local investor base and foster greater equity- and bond-market depth and liquidity to dampen the impact of global shocks.
- Empirical elements include: financial conditions indices, variance decomposition showing share attributable to global financial and monetary policy shocks, and responses of domestic financial conditions to shocks.
Key statistics and diagnostics (as presented)
- Global financial conditions account for 20 to 40 percent of the variation in countries’ domestic financial conditions.
- The report references multiple figure and box identifiers (e.g., Figures 1.1–1.26; Boxes 1.1 and 1.3; Annex Figures in Chapter 2; Tables and figures in Chapter 3) for detailed diagnostics and empirical results.
Policy recommendations (summarized)
- United States: incentivize economic risk taking while guarding against excessive financial risk taking.
- Emerging market economies: address domestic imbalances and build resilience to external shocks; prepare for tighter external financial conditions.
- Europe: tackle structural challenges in banking systems; do not roll back postcrisis financial reforms that strengthened oversight, capital, liquidity, and regulatory cooperation.
- Cross-cutting: implement policies that facilitate adjustment to a low-growth, low-interest environment by favoring measures that enhance long-term stability over short-term relief; strengthen domestic financial deepening (local investor base, equity- and bond-market depth and liquidity) to mitigate global shock transmission.
International Monetary Fund — Global Financial Stability Report: Getting the Policy Mix Right (April 2017).
Content in this bundle
- 世界の金融安定性が改善; その維持に向けた正しいポリシーミックスとは
- Annex Figure 2.1.1. Impulse Responses Outside of a Low-for-Long Scenario
- 104579 Annex Figure 2.1.1
- 104579 Annex Figure 2.1.2
- Annex Figure 2.1.2. Impulse Responses in Low-for-Long Economies
- ملخص واف: تقرير الاستقرار المالي العالمي
- boxfigure2-1d
- 104579 Figure 2.2.1
- 104579 Figure 2.2.2
- 104579 Figure 2.3.1
- Figure 2.3.1. Risk-Return Trade-off and Expected Times to Exit Underfunding
- Ch02 4thproofs 040517 V2
- Are Countries Losing Control of Domestic Financial Conditions?
- Chapter 2
- Chapter 3
- boxfigure-131equivalence-table
- 104579 Figure 1.1.1
- Figure 1.1.1. Weighted Average of Cross-Currency Swap Bases in Select Advanced Economies
- 104579 Figure 1.1.2
- Figure 1.1.2. Foreign-Currency Maturity Mismatches
- 104579 Figure 1.3.1
- Chapter 1
- 104579 Figure 1.01
- 104579 Figure 1.10
- Figure 1.10. Debt Service, Interest Coverage Ratios, and Vulnerability to Higher Interest Rates
- 104579 Figure 1.11
- Figure 1.11. United States: A Retrospective on Economic versus Financial Risk Taking
- 104579 Figure 1.12
- Figure 1.12. Emerging Market Economies: Asset Prices and Fundamentals
- 104579 Figure 1.13
- 104579 Figure 1.14
- Figure 1.14. Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
- 104579 Figure 1.15
- Figure 1.15. Emerging Market Corporate Debt under Rising Risk Premiums and Protectionism
- 104579 Figure 1.16
- figure1-16d
- 104579 Figure 1.17
- Figure 1.17. Underprovisioning in the Weak Tail of Banks
- 104579 Figure 1.18
- 104579 Figure 1.19
- Figure 1.19. China: Credit and Bank Balance Sheets
- Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions
- 104579 Figure 1.02
- 104579 Figure 1.20
- Figure 1.20. China: Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Reserves
- 104579 Figure 1.21
- figure1-21d-v2
- 104579 Figure 1.22
- Figure 1.22. Banking Sector Market Valuations and Return Performance
- 104579 Figure 1.23
- Figure 1.23. European Bank Profitability, 2016
- 104579 Figure 1.24
- Figure 1.24. European Domestic Banking System Actions to Reduce Costs
- 104579 Figure 1.25
- Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Assessment of Risks and Conditions
- 104579 Figure 1.03
- Dataset overview
- 104579 Figure 1.04
- Figure 1.4. Assessments of U.S. Equity Valuations
- 104579 Figure 1.05
- 104579 Figure 1.06
- figure1-6d — Dataset overview
- 104579 Figure 1.07
- Figure 1.7. Policy Stimulus and Corporate Balance Sheets
- 104579 Figure 1.08
- Figure 1.8. United States: Corporate Internal Funds and External Sources of Finance
- 104579 Figure 1.09
- Figure 1.9. Corporate Leverage and the Credit Cycle
- Full Report
- chapter-2-and-3-summary
- 《全球金融稳定报告》概要; 2017年4月
- 104579 Figure 2.1
- Figure 2-1d — Interest Rates, Term Spreads, and Volatility in Advanced Economies
- 104579 Figure 2.2
- Figure 2.2. Term Premiums in Economies with Normal versus Low Natural Rates
- 104579 Figure 2.3
- Figure 2.3. Banking under Low Natural Rates: Theoretical Predictions
- 104579 Figure 2.4
- figure2-4d
- 104579 Figure 2.5
- figure2-5d
- figure2-6d — Dataset overview
- 104579 Figure 2.7
- Figure 2.7. Impact of Forward Rate Surprises on Bank Equity Returns
- Figure 2.8. Asset Allocation of Pension Funds and Insurers, 2015
- 104579 Figure 2.8
- 104579 Figure 2.9
- Figure 2.9. U.S. Mutual Funds Expense Ratios and Growth of U.S. Index Funds
- 104579 Figure 3.01
- 104579 Figure 3.10
- Figure3 10d
- 104579 Figure 3.11
- Figure3 11d
- 104579 Figure 3.12
- Figure3 12d
- 104579 Figure 3.13
- Figure3 13d
- figure3-1d
- 104579 Figure 3.02
- Dataset overview
- 104579 Figure 3.03
- figure3-3d
- 104579 Figure 3.04
- figure3-4d — Probability Distributions of One-Year-Ahead GDP Growth
- 104579 Figure 3.05
- Figure 3.5. Three-Factor Model Based on Financial Conditions Index, 1995–2016
- 104579 Figure 3.06
- Figure 3.6. Single Factor versus Principal Component Analysis, 1995–2015
- figure3-7d
- 104579 Figure 3.08
- dataset overview
- 104579 Figure 3.09
- Figure 3.9. Response of Domestic Financial Conditions to Shocks
- Rapport Sur La Stabilité FinancièRe Dans Le Monde
- Imf Gfsr 2017: Executive Summary
- Preface
- 国際金融安定性報告書(GFSR), 2017年4月: 要旨
- SUMÁRIO EXECUTIVO: A estabilidade financeira melhorou
- Аналитическое резюме -- Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности, апрель 2017 года
- Informe sobre la estabilidad financiera mundial
- suma
- 2017年4月《全球金融稳定报告》
- April 2017—Global Financial Sbility Report
- 国際金融安定性報告書 2017年4月, 第二章の要旨:低成長と低金利下の金融仲介
- Резюме по главам 2 и 3 -- Доклад по вопросам глобальной финансовой стабильности, апрель 2017 года
- Informe Sobre La Estabilidad Financiera Mundial De Abril De 2017