Technical Assistance Reports

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Policy Assessment System (FPAS) Scoping Mission

July 16, 2025

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Format: Chicago

International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department "The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Technical Assistance Report-Forecasting Policy Assessment System (FPAS) Scoping Mission", Technical Assistance Reports 2025, 070 (2025), accessed 12/6/2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229017831.019

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Summary

The Technical Assistance (TA) mission, conducted in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, from November 4 to 8, 2024, assisted the National Bank of Ethiopia’s (NBE) authorities in developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The aim of the mission was to assess the status of the FPAS and identify developmental needs considering the ongoing transition to an interest rate-based framework. This TA mission reviewed the status of key components of FPAS at the NBE, revealing that both forecasting models and a dedicated forecasting team are in place. The commitment of the Governor, Vice Governor, management, and staff to enhance the NBE's FPAS is promising for the seamless implementation of efficient FPAS, which will include the introduction of additional nowcasting and satellite models, development of a structural macro model, and establishment of a structured monetary policy and forecasting process.

Subject: Econometric analysis, Economic forecasting, Inflation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy frameworks, Prices

Keywords: Department mission, Ethiopia, Forecasting and policy analysis system, forecasting models, forecasting process, FPAS, Global, Inflation, instrumentalities of the TA recipient, interest rate-based framework, Key Components of FPAS, MCM Department, Monetary policy frameworks, National Bank of Ethiopia., quarterly projection model, request of National Bank of Ethiopia, scoping mission, structural macro model, structured monetary policy