Guatemala: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System at Bank of Guatemala (BANGUAT)
Technical Assistance Reports, November 26, 2025
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- Guatemala: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System at Bank of Guatemala (BANGUAT)
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Bibliographic details
- Published: November 26, 2025
- Series: Technical Assistance Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229026628.019
Summary
- An IMF technical assistance mission to the Banco de Guatemala (BANGUAT) reviewed the central bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to strengthen monetary policy making under inflation targeting.
- Discussions focused on the FPAS’s role in policy decision-making, coordination across departments, and use of forecasting models and tools.
- The mission found that BANGUAT has made good progress—including the development of a new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) and adopting more forward-looking decision-making processes—while noting some institutional frictions, coordination challenges, and gaps relative to international best practices.
- To address these issues, the mission recommended enhancing the organization and governance of the forecasting process, fully integrating the QPM into regular forecasting and policy discussions, and improving data management and collaboration mechanisms across departments to produce a more coherent and policy-relevant forecast.
Key Findings
- Progress achieved:
- Development of a new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM).
- Adoption of more forward-looking decision-making processes.
- Remaining challenges:
- Institutional frictions affecting the forecasting process.
- Coordination challenges across departments.
- Gaps relative to international best practices in forecasting and policy analysis.
Policy Recommendations
- Enhance the organization and governance of the forecasting process.
- Fully integrate the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) into regular forecasting and policy discussions.
- Improve data management across departments.
- Strengthen collaboration mechanisms across departments to produce a more coherent and policy-relevant forecast.
Subjects and Keywords
- Subjects:
- Central bank policy rate
- Economic forecasting
- Exchange rate policy
- Financial services
- Foreign exchange
- Inflation
- Inflation targeting
- Monetary policy
- Prices
- Keywords:
- Central bank policy rate
- Exchange rate policy
- Forecasting and Policy Analysis
- Guatemala.
- Imf publication
- Imf to Imf executive directors
- Imf to International Monetary Fund
- Inflation
- Inflation targeting
- MCM Department
- Monetary Policy
- technical assistance provider
Content in this bundle
- tarea2025100-source-pdf