Technical Notes and Manuals

Assessing Country Risk: Selected Approaches

By Ashvin Ahuja, Kevin Wiseman, Murtaza H Syed

June 1, 2017

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Ashvin Ahuja, Kevin Wiseman, and Murtaza H Syed. Assessing Country Risk: Selected Approaches, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2017) accessed October 12, 2024

Disclaimer: This Technical Guidance Note should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Note are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.

Subject: Balance of payments, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial crises, Financial markets, Financial statements, Public debt, Public financial management (PFM), Sudden stops

Keywords: Banking Crisis, Contagion Risk, Country risk, Coverage ratio, Crisis risk model, Crisis Risk Models, Currency Crisis, Debt, Duration risk indicator, Economy, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Exchange market pressure index, Fair value, Financial Crisis, Financial statements, Fiscal Crisis, Global, Implementation risk, Interest rate, Market, Policy implementation risk, Return on assets, Risk, Risk Assessment, Risk exercise, Risk surveillance monitor, Risk toolkit, Sudden stops, TNM

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    28

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Technical Notes and Manuals No. 2017/008

  • Stock No:

    TNMEA2017008

  • ISBN:

    9781484302569

  • ISSN:

    2075-8669