Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data
IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2004
Source details
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- Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Alain N. Kabundi
- Published: April 1, 2004
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451849097.001
Summary
- This paper proposes a new way of computing a coincident indicator for economic activity in France using data from business surveys.
- The results obtained show that the resulting indicator forecasts economic activity with a relatively high degree of accuracy before the release of actual data.
Methodology
- Model: generalized dynamic factor model à la Forni and others (2000).
- Data: a large number of survey observations from business surveys.
- Purpose: to extract common components from survey observations to construct a coincident indicator for economic activity in France.
Key findings and analysis
- The extracted common components produce an indicator that forecasts economic activity with a relatively high degree of accuracy prior to official data releases.
Subjects and keywords (as stated in the source)
- Subjects: Business cycles, Cyclical indicators, Economic and financial statistics, Economic growth, Financial institutions, Stocks.
- Keywords: Business cycles, Cyclical indicators, Dynamic factor models, economic forecasting, economic growth rate, economic indicator index, Europe, generalized dynamic factor model, negative correlation correlation coefficient, random walk, RW model, Stocks, survey data, time series, WP.
Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data — Alain N. Kabundi (IMF Working Papers, 2004/069).