Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990–97: A Stylized Regression Analysis
IMF Working Papers, September 1, 1998
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- Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990–97: A Stylized Regression Analysis
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 1, 1998
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451928365.001
Scope and approach
- Analysis covers 25 transition economies during 1990–97.
- Stylized regression analysis examining determinants of growth across countries undergoing transition.
Key findings
- Macroeconomic stabilization, structural reform, and reduction of government expenditures are key to achieving sustainable growth.
- Although the initial effect of reforms on output may be negative, over time the best growth performances are in those countries with the greatest progress in implementing reforms.
- Adverse initial conditions hurt growth, but their effect is small compared to the effects of stabilization, reform, and spending reductions.
Implications for policy
- Prioritize macroeconomic stabilization to create conditions conducive to growth.
- Advance structural reforms steadily, recognizing possible short-term negative output effects but larger long-term gains.
- Reduce government expenditures as part of a strategy to support sustainable growth.
- Focus less on initial adverse conditions as constraints, since their negative impact is relatively small compared with reform and stabilization efforts.
Subject areas and themes addressed
- Expenditure, Government debt management, Inflation, Labor, Macrostructural analysis, Prices, Public financial management (PFM), Structural reforms
- Themes include: economic growth, initial conditions of transition, market economy reforms, sustainable growth in transition countries.
International Monetary Fund. "Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990–97: A Stylized Regression Analysis", IMF Working Papers 1998, 141 (1998).
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- Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990-97: A Stylized Regression Analysis - WP/98/141