Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?
IMF Working Papers, March 1, 2003
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Gaston Gelos, Alessandro Prati, Oya Celasun
- Published: March 1, 2003
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451846867.001
Overview
- Title: Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?
- Authors: Gaston Gelos, Alessandro Prati, Oya Celasun
- Date: March 1, 2003
- Series: Working Paper No. 2003/049
- Issue: 049
- Volume: 2003
- Pages: 20
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451846867.001
- ISBN: 9781451846867
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Stock No: WPIEA0492003
Main findings
- Persistently high inflation rates have led to the belief that inflation in Turkey has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation.
- The authors assess the empirical validity of the "inertial inflation" argument and find:
- The current degree of inflation persistence in Turkey is lower than in Brazil and Uruguay prior to their successful stabilization programs.
- Expectations of future inflation are more important than past inflation in shaping the inflation process, providing little evidence of "backward-looking" behavior.
- Using survey data, inflation expectations depend largely on the evolution of fiscal variables.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Disinflation, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Government debt management, Inflation, Inflation persistence, Prices, Public financial management (PFM)
- Keywords: cost, CPI index, Disinflation, disinflation attempt, disinflation strategy, Fiscal stance, Government debt management, inertia, Inflation, inflation expectation, inflation persistence, Inflation persistence, price, price rigidities, stabilization, Turkey, variable, WP
Implications highlighted by the paper
- Degree of inflation persistence in Turkey does not appear higher than historical precedents in Brazil and Uruguay before their stabilization successes.
- Forward-looking inflation expectations matter more than backward-looking inertia, implying that policies affecting expectations and fiscal fundamentals can be central to disinflation efforts.
- Fiscal variables play a major role in shaping inflation expectations as evidenced by survey data.
IMF Working Paper by Gaston Gelos, Alessandro Prati, and Oya Celasun (March 1, 2003), Working Paper No. 2003/049, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451846867.001
Content in this bundle
- Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey? - WP/03/49