Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?
IMF Working Papers, November 16, 2016
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- Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Anne Oeking, Mariusz A. Sumlinski
- Published: November 16, 2016
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475554823.001
Summary
- Authors: Anne Oeking, Mariusz A. Sumlinski
- Publication date: November 16, 2016
- Paper focus: incidences of arrears to the IMF, with emphasis on protracted arrears cases; identification of determinants of occurrence and duration of arrears.
- Methods: narrative and formal methods; analysis of determinants of the duration of arrears.
Key findings and determinants
- Previous arrears, reserves coverage, and institutional quality are among the main determinants of arrears.
- Political developments, including civil unrest, increase the likelihood that arrears will arise and that they will last longer.
- Improved macroeconomic conditions and turnaround of political fortunes would help to clear the currently remaining protracted arrears cases.
Methods and analytical approach
- Use of narrative methods.
- Use of formal methods, including econometric analysis and logit models (as reflected in subject and keyword listings).
Policy implications and recommendations
- Strengthen reserves coverage to reduce incidence and duration of arrears.
- Improve institutional quality to decrease vulnerability to arrears.
- Address political instability and civil unrest to reduce both the probability and persistence of arrears.
- Pursue macroeconomic improvements to facilitate clearance of protracted arrears cases.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Arrears, Commodity price indexes, Credit, Econometric analysis, External debt, Logit models, Money, Prices
- Keywords: Arrears, arrears case, arrears clearance, arrears occurrence, clearance path, Commodity price indexes, Credit, External Debt, Global, IMF credit, International Monetary Fund, Logit models, protracted arrears, WP
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- Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?