Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?
November 16, 2016
Download PDF
More Formats on IMF eLibrary
Order a Print CopyDisclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary
In this paper, we consider incidences of arrears to the IMF, focusing on protracted arrears cases and attempt to identify determinants of their occurrence. We use narrative and formal methods. In addition, we analyze determinants of the duration of arrears. We find that previous arrears, reserves coverage, and institutional quality are among the main determinants of arrears. In addition, we identify a role for political developments, including civil unrest, which make arrears more likely to arise and to last longer. We conclude that improved macroeconomic conditions and turnaround of political fortunes would help to clear the currently remaining protracted arrears cases.
Subject: Arrears, Commodity price indexes, Credit, Econometric analysis, External debt, Logit models, Money, Prices
Keywords: Arrears, arrears case, arrears clearance, arrears occurrence, clearance path, Commodity price indexes, Credit, External Debt, Global, IMF credit, International Monetary Fund, Logit models, protracted arrears, WP
Pages:
40
Volume:
2016
DOI:
Issue:
225
Series:
Working Paper No. 2016/225
Stock No:
WPIEA2016225
ISBN:
9781475554823
ISSN:
1018-5941
