Demand Patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium: Can We Explain the Differences?
IMF Working Papers, September 12, 2014
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Demand Patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium: Can We Explain the Differences?
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: Igor Lebrun, Esther Perez Ruiz
- Published: September 12, 2014
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498309462.001
Summary and Main Analytical Findings
- The paper places recent demand patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium into historical perspective to inform efforts to revive Euro area growth.
- Four core findings:
- Dynamics for private consumption, non-residential business investment, and exports since 2008 is dominated by conventional determinants, with no discernible structural break as a result of the crisis.
- Although country-specific factors matter in some cases, demand patterns in these countries are largely driven by common determinants.
- Developments in common fundamentals tend to dominate demand dynamics, coupled, in a few cases, with structurally different elasticities across countries.
- Short-term analysis suggests a role for confidence and uncertainty factors in explaining temporary deviations of these variables from long-term fundamentals.
Analytical Focus and Variables Examined
- Consumption and income-related variables:
- Private consumption
- Disposable income
- Household income
- Consumer confidence
- Investment and cost variables:
- Non-residential business investment
- Cost of capital
- Investment deflator
- Labor market and external sector:
- Employment performance
- Unemployment rate
- Exports
- International trade
- Broader thematic scope:
- Demand patterns
- Growth
Methodological and Interpretive Notes
- Historical comparison to detect structural breaks around the 2008 crisis: no discernible structural break detected for the key demand components examined.
- Emphasis on distinguishing common (shared) determinants from country-specific factors; results indicate common fundamentals are the primary drivers, with occasional country-specific elasticities.
- Short-term deviations from fundamentals are linked to confidence and uncertainty indicators.
Keywords and Subject Tags (as listed)
- Subjects: Consumption, Disposable income, Exports, Income, International trade, National accounts, Private consumption
- Keywords: Belgium, business investment, consumer confidence, Consumption, cost of capital, demand patterns, Disposable income, Eastern Europe, employment performance, Exports, France, Germany, growth, household income, Income, investment deflator, Private consumption, unemployment rate, WP
Igor Lebrun, and Esther Perez Ruiz. September 12, 2014. Working Paper No. 2014/165 (25 pages). DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498309462.001. ISBN: 9781498309462. ISSN: 1018-5941. Stock No: WPIEA2014165.