Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence
IMF Working Papers, June 1, 2011
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- Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Natalia T. Tamirisa, Prakash Loungani, Herman O. Stekler
- Published: June 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455263424.001
Study scope and objectives
- Authors: Natalia T. Tamirisa, Prakash Loungani, Herman O. Stekler
- Publication date: June 1, 2011
- Coverage: forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades
- Principal research questions:
- (i) Are rigidities lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises?
- (ii) Do rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets?
- (iii) How quickly do forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries’ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa?
Key findings and empirical focus
- Documented phenomenon: information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth across 46 countries.
- Emphasis on cross-country heterogeneity:
- Comparison of rigidities between advanced countries and emerging markets is a central focus.
- Turning points analysis:
- Investigation centers on whether rigidities are lower during recessions and crisis episodes.
- International spillovers in forecasting:
- Analysis of the speed with which forecasters incorporate news about other countries’ growth into their own forecasts, including advanced-to-emerging and emerging-to-advanced directions.
Methodology and thematic areas
- Econometric and theoretical approaches referenced:
- Econometric analysis
- Vector autoregression
- Rational expectations
- Thematic subject areas listed:
- Banking crises, Financial crises, Financial markets
- Emerging and frontier financial markets
- Economic theory
Publication and metadata
- Series: Working Paper No. 2011/125
- Issue: 125
- Volume: 2011
- Pages: 41
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455263424.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2011125
- ISBN: 9781455263424
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Source: IMF Working Papers — "Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence", Natalia T. Tamirisa, Prakash Loungani, Herman O. Stekler, June 1, 2011.