AI and Macroeconomic Modeling: Deep Reinforcement Learning in an RBC model
IMF Working Papers, February 24, 2023
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- AI and Macroeconomic Modeling: Deep Reinforcement Learning in an RBC model
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Tohid Atashbar, Rui Aruhan Shi
- Published: February 24, 2023
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400235252.001
Study objective and methodological approach
- Objective: construct a basic reinforcement learning-based AI-macroeconomic simulator.
- Method: use a deep RL (DRL) approach (DDPG) in an RBC macroeconomic model.
- Learning algorithm highlighted: DDPG (Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient), an actor-critic algorithm.
Experimental design: scenarios and comparison benchmark
- Two learning scenarios:
- Deterministic scenario: without the technological shock; objective is to compare the learning agent's behavior to a deterministic steady-state scenario.
- Stochastic scenario: includes stochastic technological shocks.
- Benchmark: deterministic steady-state outcomes used for comparison with the agent's learned behavior.
Main findings and results
- Agent behavior:
- In both deterministic and stochastic scenarios, the agent's choices are close to their optimal value.
- The study also presents cases of unstable learning behaviours.
- Implication: DRL (DDPG) can approximate optimal policy choices in an RBC setting under both deterministic and stochastic environments, but learning stability can be an issue in some cases.
Policy and research implications / recommendations
- Model enhancements suggested for future research:
- Add additional variables or sectors to the model.
- Incorporate different DRL algorithms beyond DDPG.
- Research role: this AI-macro model serves as a foundation for exploring AI-driven macroeconomic simulation and can be extended to analyze richer environments or alternative learning algorithms.
Subjects and keywords
- Subjects: Artificial intelligence, Asset and liability management, Debt relief, Economic theory, Labor, Machine learning, Rational expectations, Technology
- Keywords: Actor-critic algorithms, AI experiment, AI-macroeconomic simulator, Artificial intelligence, DDPG, Debt relief, Deep deterministic policy gradient, Deep reinforcement learning, DRL, Global, learning algorithm, Learning algorithms, Machine learning, Macro modeling, Rational expectations, RBC, RBC model, Real business cycles, Reinforcement learning, RL
IMF Working Papers — "AI and Macroeconomic Modeling: Deep Reinforcement Learning in an RBC model", Tohid Atashbar and Rui Aruhan Shi, February 24, 2023.
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