Unlocking MENA and CCA Trade in a Fragmented World

IMF Working Papers, December 19, 2025

Source details

Authors: Apostolos Apostolou, Fillipo Gori, Thomas Kroen, Salem M Nechi, Subi Suvetha Velkumar
Published: December 19, 2025
Series: IMF Working Papers
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229034463.001

Topic: Impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on trade flows in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions.
Context: Ongoing conflicts, security threats, a spike in global economic uncertainty, and evolving consumer sentiments create intricate challenges requiring agile policy responses.
Authors: Apostolos Apostolou, Fillipo Gori, Thomas Kroen, Salem M Nechi, Subi Suvetha Velkumar.
Date: December 19, 2025.
Publication type: IMF Working Papers.

The scenarios demonstrate material effects on exports and economic output across CCA and MENA under different manifestations of geoeconomic fragmentation.
The analysis highlights the critical importance of:
- Reducing trade barriers.
- Enhancing infrastructure.
- Improving regulatory environments.
These measures are presented as essential for fostering resilience and promoting sustainable growth in the affected regions.

Prioritize removal or reduction of trade barriers to mitigate negative trade impacts from geoeconomic fragmentation.
Invest in infrastructure to improve connectivity and reduce costs associated with trade diversion and fragmentation.
Reform and strengthen regulatory environments to enhance trade facilitation and adaptability to shifting global trade patterns.
Emphasize agile policy responses to address evolving security threats, economic uncertainty, and changing consumer sentiments.

Subjects: Exports, International trade, Trade balance, Trade barriers, Trade policy.
Keywords: Africa, Asia and Pacific, Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA), Cca economy, Cca trade, Central Asia, Exports, Geoeconomic Fragmentation, Geopolitical Uncertainties, Global, IMF working papers, Infrastructure Investment Regulatory Constraints, Middle East, Middle East and North Africa(MENA), North Africa, Trade balance, Trade Barriers, Trade DiversionTrade Policy, Trade pattern, Trade policy, Trade potential.

Unlocking MENA and CCA Trade in a Fragmented World, IMF Working Papers (2025).