How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?

Author/Editor:

Martin Mühleisen ; Kornelia Krajnyak ; Stephan Danninger ; David Hauner ; Bennett W Sutton

Publication Date:

March 1, 2005

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper compares Canadian central government budget forecasting with forecasting by other industrial countries. While fiscal forecasting in Canada is governed by one of the strongest institutional frameworks, quantitative analysis suggests that budget projections of macroeconomic and fiscal aggregates have been more cautious than in other countries since the mid-1990s. The relatively volatile macroeconomic environment as well as institutional factors, such as Canada's asymmetric deficit target, have likely contributed to this outcome.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2005/066

Subject:

Budget planning and preparation Expenditure Fiscal policy Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts Public financial management (PFM) Revenue administration

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2005

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451860856/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2005066

Pages:

49

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org