Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries

 
Author/Editor: Obiora, Kingsley I
 
Publication Date: June 01, 2009
 
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Summary: This paper uses VAR models to examine the magnitude and sources of growth spillovers to the Baltics from key trading partners, as well asfrom the real effective exchange rate (REER). Our results show there are significant cross-country spillovers to the Baltics with those from the EU outweighing spillovers from Russia. Shocks to the REER generally depress growth in the Baltics, and this intensifies over time. We also find that financial and trade channels dominate the transmission of spillovers to the region which partly explains the realization of downside risks to the Baltics from the global slowdown.
 
Series: Working Paper No. 09/125
Subject(s): Commodity prices | Cross country analysis | Economic models | Estonia | European Union | External shocks | Financial crisis | Latvia | Lithuania | Real effective exchange rates | Regional shocks | Russian Federation | Spillovers | Trade integration

Author's Keyword(s): Spillovers | Baltics | Vector Autoregression
 
English
Publication Date: June 01, 2009
Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2009125 Pages: 38
Price:
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
US$18.00 )
 
 
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