Modeling Inflation in Chad

Author/Editor: Tidiane Kinda
Publication Date: March 01, 2011
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: This paper examines the determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3. The analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence. The results show that the main determinants of inflation in Chad are rainfall, foreign prices, exchange rate movements, and public spending. The effects of rainfall shocks and changes in foreign prices on inflation persist during six quarters. Changes in public spending and the nominal exchange rate affect inflation during three and four quarters, respectively.
Series: Working Paper No. 11/57
Subject(s): Consumer price indexes | Economic models | External shocks | Government expenditures

Author's Keyword(s): Inflation | Rainfall | External shocks | Public spending | Cointegration | Single-equation model | Structural VAR.
Publication Date: March 01, 2011
ISBN/ISSN: 9781455221011/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2011057 Pages: 30
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
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