Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap

ByJulia Bersch, Tara M. Sinclair

April 1, 2011

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper compares the output gap estimates for Mongolia based on a number of different methods. Special attention is paid to the substantial role of mining in the Mongolian economy. We find that a Blanchard and Quah-type joint model of output and inflation provides a more robust estimate of the output gap for Mongolia than the traditional statistical decompositions.

Subject: Business cycles, Inflation, Non-renewable resources, Output gap, Potential output

Keywords: economy, GDP, output gap estimate, output gap measure, WP

Pages:
16
Volume:
2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455226092.001
Issue:
079
Series:
Working Paper No. 2011/079
Stock No:
WPIEA2011079
ISBN:
9781455226092
ISSN:
1018-5941

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