Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects
September 1, 1998
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Summary
What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.
Subject: Agricultural commodities, Agricultural sector, Commodities, Economic sectors, Expenditure, Foreign exchange, Macrostructural analysis, Public investment spending, Structural reforms
Keywords: Agricultural commodities, Agricultural sector, Baltics, consumer goods, Growth, Output, output performance, private sector, Public investment spending, reform policy, Structural reforms, Sustainability, Transition, unmeasured Uzbekistan effect, Uzbek authorities, Uzbek experience, Uzbek growth experience, Uzbek growth path, Uzbekistan, WP
Pages:
30
Volume:
1998
DOI:
Issue:
132
Series:
Working Paper No. 1998/132
Stock No:
WPIEA1321998
ISBN:
9781451855357
ISSN:
1018-5941
