IMF Working Papers

Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects

Author/Editor:

Jeromin Zettelmeyer ; Günther Taube

Publication Date:

September 1, 1998

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.

Series:

Working Paper No. 1998/132

Subject:

Agricultural commodities Agricultural sector Commodities Economic sectors Expenditure Foreign exchange Macrostructural analysis Public investment spending Structural reforms