The Fall and Recovery of the Cuban Economy in the 1990's: Mirage or Reality?

Author/Editor:

Ernesto Hernández-Catá

Publication Date:

May 1, 2001

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The collapse of the Cuban economy following the cessation of Soviet assistance gave way to a strong recovery in 1994-96. There are three possible explanations for this recovery: (i) that it never took place; (ii) that it reflected a surge in productivity resulting from stabilization and liberalization in 1993-94; or (iii) that it resulted from a favorable aggregate demand shock. The second explanation-the most persuasive-suggests that a strong and durable expansion will probably not be achieved on the basis of present policies, but that the benefits of a full liberalization of the economy are likely to be considerable.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2001/048

Subject:

Employment Labor Labor force Price controls Prices Production Productivity Total factor productivity

English

Publication Date:

May 1, 2001

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451846744/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0482001

Pages:

25

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