Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years. Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40–50 percent of slowdown during this period. Weaker exports also account for about 40 percent of slowdown, of which about a quarter is due to stronger RMB. Onshoring—substitution of imported intermediate inputs with domestic production—has not been an additional drag over this period but it continues to slow import growth at a similar pace as previous periods. There is large uncertainty about the impact of rebalancing on the import slowdown due to difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2016/106
Subject:
Consumption Exports Financial crises Foreign exchange Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 Imports International trade National accounts Real effective exchange rates
English
Publication Date:
May 26, 2016
ISBN/ISSN:
9781484368626/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2016106
Pages:
34
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