Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?

November 16, 2016

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Format: Chicago

Anne Oeking, and Mariusz A. Sumlinski Arrears to the IMF – A Ghost of the Past?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2016) accessed September 20, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

In this paper, we consider incidences of arrears to the IMF, focusing on protracted arrears cases and attempt to identify determinants of their occurrence. We use narrative and formal methods. In addition, we analyze determinants of the duration of arrears. We find that previous arrears, reserves coverage, and institutional quality are among the main determinants of arrears. In addition, we identify a role for political developments, including civil unrest, which make arrears more likely to arise and to last longer. We conclude that improved macroeconomic conditions and turnaround of political fortunes would help to clear the currently remaining protracted arrears cases.

Subject: Arrears, Commodity price indexes, Credit, Econometric analysis, External debt, Logit models, Money, Prices

Keywords: Arrears, Arrears case, Arrears clearance, Arrears occurrence, Clearance path, Commodity price indexes, Credit, External Debt, Global, IMF credit, International Monetary Fund, Logit models, Protracted arrears, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

40
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2016/225
Stock No:

WPIEA2016225
ISBN:

9781475554823
ISSN:

1018-5941

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