IMF Staff Country Reports

The 2023 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Kazakhstan highlights that Growth is estimated to have reached 4.8 percent in 2023 and is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2024. Inflation declined to 9.8 percent in 2023, still well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK)’s target of 5 percent. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. The state’s footprint in the economy remains large and structural reform implementation has been slow in recent years. With many uncertainties affecting the short-term outlook, monetary policy should remain tight until inflation is closer to target and inflation expectations are re-anchored. To support this, there is significant room to further strengthen the NBK’s independence and the effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy. Structural reforms are essential to advance Kazakhstan’s transition to a fully-fledged market economy and promote a more vibrant private sector that will lead future job creation and economic diversification and growth.