Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Regional Economic Outlook:Sub-Saharan Africa

October 2007

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The region's prospects look strong. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should reach 6 percent in 2007 and 6¾ percent in 2008. The economic expansion is strongest in oil exporters but cuts across all country groups. This would extend a period of very good performance. In recent years, sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its strongest growth and lowest inflation in over 30 years.

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Contents

Preface
Abbreviations
Executive Summary
I. Overview
  Main Developments and Outlook for 2007
  Macroeconomic Policy Issues
  Prospects for 2008
  Medium-Term Policy Challenges
II. The Creation of Fiscal Space for Priority Spending: Case Studies in Sub-Saharan Africa
  Experience with Sources of Fiscal Space
  Experience with the Use of Fiscal Space
  Planning for the Medium Term in Theory and Practice
  Country Case Studies
Appendix
Statistical Appendix
  Sub-Saharan Africa: Country Groupings
  Data and Conventions
  List of Tables
References
Publications of the IMF African Department, 2003–07
Tables
1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Indicators, 2003-08
2.1. Fiscal Space Indicators for Selected Countries, Changes, 2000–06
2.2. Debt Service–to-GDP Ratios for Selected Countries, 2000–06
2.3. Ghana: Sources and Uses of Fiscal Space
2.4. Malawi: Sources and Uses of Fiscal Space
2.5. Rwanda: Sources and Uses of Fiscal Space
2.6. Tanzania: Sources and Uses of Fiscal Space
2.7. Uganda: Sources and Uses of Fiscal Space
Figures
1.1. A Comparison of Growth
1.2. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.3. Contribution to GDP Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.4. Real per capita GDP Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.5. Terms of Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.6. Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.7. Components of Official Development Assistance to Sub-Saharan Africa
1.8. Sub-Saharan Africa’s External Current Account Balance
1.9. Trade Volume and Terms of Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.10. Sub-Saharan African Commodity Prices
1.11. International Reserves in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.12. External Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.13. Counterparts to Money Supply in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.14. Credit to the Private Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.15. Real Effective Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.16. Real Effective Exchange Rates in the CEMAC and the WAEMU
1.17. Real Effective Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries with a Floating Regime
1.18. Real Effective Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.19. Central Government Revenues in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.20. Central Government Primary Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.21. Central Government Social Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.22. Central Government Balance in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.23. Low-Income Sub-Saharan African Countries: Government Financing of Fiscal Deficits
1.24. Growth Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa
2.1. Median Revenue-to-GDP Ratio for Selected Groups of African Countries
2.2. Median Grants-to-GDP Ratio for Selected Groups of African Countries
2.3. Median Expenditures-to-GDP Ratio for Selected Groups of African Countries
2.4. Median Overall Deficit–to-GDP Ratio for Selected Groups of African Countries
2.5. Ghana: Total Official External Financing, 2005–09
2.6a. Rwanda: Aid and Capital Expenditure
2.6b. Rwanda: Government Revenue and Expenditure
2.7. Uganda: Net Donor Inflows
2.8. Uganda: Government Expenditure and Revenue
Boxes
1.1. Typology of Countries
1.2. Terms of Trade and Current Growth Episodes in Sub-Saharan Africa
1.3. Aid to Sub-Saharan Africa: Where Do We Stand on Gleneagles?
1.4. Private Capital Flows to Sub-Saharan Africa
1.5. Foreign Exchange Reserve Adequacy in Africa
1.6. The Local Currency Debt Market in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
2.1. The Poverty and Social Impact of Increasing Fiscal Space Through Revenue Collection
2.2. Reforms at the Uganda Revenue Authority