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World Economic and Financial Surveys

Regional Economic Outlook:
Sub-Saharan Africa

Keeping the Pace

October 2013
©2013 International Monetary Fund

The October 2013 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa provides a comprehensive report on the prospects for growth in the region, as well as the major risks to the outlook. Generally, growth is expected to remain strong despite a downward revision since the May 2013 report. The report analyzes drivers of growth in nonresource-rich sub-Saharan African countries, and examines the risks to frontier market economies of volatile capital flows as they become more integrated with international capital markets.


Contents
Abbreviations
Acknowledgements
In Brief
1.  Keeping the Pace
  International Context
  The Regional Outlook: Baseline Scenario
  Are Sub-Saharan African Current Account Deficits a Source of Concern?
  Scenario Analysis: Commodity Price Variations
  Risks, Policy Challenges, and Recommendations
  Concluding Remarks
  Annex
2.  Drivers of Growth in Nonresource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries
  The Overall Growth Experience in the Sample Countries
  Evidence from Country Cases
  Concluding Remarks and Outlook
  Annex
3.  Managing Volatile Capital Flows: Experiences and Lessons for Sub-Saharan African
  Frontier Markets
  Short-Term Flows in Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets
  Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets
  Concluding Remarks
  Annex
Statistical Appendix
References
Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–13
 
Boxes
1.1. Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers through Trade?
1.2. Government Debt: Old and New Risks
1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa’s Progress in Achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
1.4. Has Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Been Inclusive?
2.1. Is It Real? Alternative Benchmarks Evaluating GDP Estimates
2.2. The Role of Total Factor Productivity in the Growth Acceleration of Nonresource-Rich Low-Income Countries
2.3. Investment in Mozambique
2.4. Examples of National Programs Aimed at Raising Yields
3.1. Drivers of Portfolio Flows to Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets
3.2. Capital Flows Management Measures in Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets
3.3. Examples of Macroprudential Policies
3.4. Nigeria—Capital Flows and Policy Response
3.5. Ghana’s Recent Experience in Portfolio Flows
3.6. Zambia—Copper and Capital
 
Tables
1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth
1.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Debt Indicators
1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators
1.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Bonds Issued, 2013
1.5. Scenario Assumptions
1.6. Selected Regions; Percentage of Countries Meeting Specific Benchmarks
1.7. IMF Statistics Department Technical Assistance Missions in Sub-Saharan Africa
2.1. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Real GDP and Real GDP per Capita Growth, Average 1995–2010
2.2. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Sectoral Growth in Real GDP
2.3. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Annual Change in Relative Employment Shares through 2010
2.4. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Economic Indicators
2.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Cost of Doing Business Indicators
2.6. Burkina Faso: Cotton Reforms, 1992–2008
2.7. Determinants of Real per Capita Output Growth
3.1. Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets: Average Private Flows
3.2. Cross-Border Bank-Related Flows to Sub-Saharan African Countries
3.3. Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets: Real Exchange and International Reserves Performance
3.4. Determinants of Gross Portfolio Investment Flows
3.5. Determinants of Equity and Bond Flows in Sub-Saharan Africa
 
Figures
1.1. World Economic Forecast Revisions
1.2. International Commodity Prices
1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Forecast Revisions Relative to April 2013
1.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth and Percentile in the World Distribution of Growth
1.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Food and Nonfood Inflation
1.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Bond Flows to Emerging Market and Frontier Economies
1.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Equity Flows to Emerging Market and Frontier Economies
1.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real Exchange Rate Developments by Traditional Country Groups, 2001–13 (June)
1.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Distribution of External Current Account Balance-to-GDP Ratio (Center Quintiles), 2000–13
1.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Ratio of External Current Account Balance to GDP, 2000–13
1.11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Account Developments, by Country Groupings: 2001–13
1.12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Balance of Payments, 2009–12 Average
1.13. Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Account Financing 2009–12 Average
1.14. Sub-Saharan Africa: External Current Account Balance-to-GDP Ratio, 2012–18
1.15. Sub-Saharan Africa: Distribution of External Debt-to-GDP Ratio (Center Quintiles) 2000–13
1.16. Sub-Saharan Africa: External Debt-to-GDP Ratio, 2000–13
1.17. Sub-Saharan Africa: Commodity Price Scenarios
1.18. Statistical Capacity Indicator
2.1. Selected Regions: Real GDP Index
2.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Index
2.3. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Real GDP Index
2.4. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Contributions of Sectors to Real GDP Growth, Average 1995–2010
2.5. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: The Virtuous Circle, Average 1995–2010
2.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Worldwide Governance Indicators
2.7. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Expenditure on Education
2.8. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Credit to the Private Sector
2.9. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Adults with an Account at a Formal Financial Institution, 2011
2.10. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Donor Financing, Average 1995–2010
2.11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Misalignment with Equilibrium Exchange Rate
2.12. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Saving and Investment, 1995–2010
2.13. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Public Capital Expenditure, 1995–2010
2.14. Uganda: Private Investment, 1996–2010
2.15. Sub-Saharan African Sample Countries: Infrastructure Indicators
2.16. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Share of Agriculture in GDP
2.17. Sub-Saharan Africa Sample Countries: Contributions of Sectors to Services Growth, Average 2000–11
2.18. Selected Countries: Contributions to Real GDP per Capita Growth, 2000–11
3.1. Selected Regions: Capital Inflows: 2000–12
3.2. Selected Regions: Private Investment
3.3. Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets: External Loans from and Deposits at BIS-Reporting Banks
3.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Fluctuations in Equity and Bond Flows
3.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Frontier Markets: Exchange Rate Depreciation, 2013
3.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Exchange Rate Volatility, 2013
3.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Bond Yield to Maturity Spreads to 10-year U.S. Bonds, 2013
3.8. Sub-Saharan Africa Frontier Markets: Twin Deficits
3.9. Sub-Saharan Africa Frontier Markets: Portfolio Flows
3.10. Sub-Saharan Africa Frontier Markets: Net Portfolio Flows and Gross International Reserves