This course, presented by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, offers a comprehensive overview of the theories, tools, and techniques essential for conducting robust financial stability analysis. The course begins with an introduction to the foundational concepts of macroprudential stress testing for banks. Participants will explore the key components of quantitative tools to assess risks and vulnerabilities in the banking system, starting with financial soundness indicators and business model analysis based on financial statements. This part is accompanied by detailed illustrations of a standard bank stress testing framework applied in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and various technical assistance missions. Participants will actively engage in hands-on sessions, covering key areas such as scenario design, satellite model estimation, and capital impact assessment.
Building on these foundations, the course introduces cutting-edge advanced topics for a holistic macrofinancial systemic risk assessment. Topics would include (i) risks and vulnerabilities of nonbank financial institutions, non-financial corporates, and households, (ii) a high-level overview of contagion and interconnectedness analysis, (iii) feedback loops between the real economy and the financial sector, as well as systemwide risk analysis, (iv) an overview of climate risks analysis. Country case studies, under varying data constraints and availability, will be discussed. This course also provides a deeper understanding of other financial stability components such as risk premium, various financial instruments, hedging, understanding models, etc.
Presentations are complemented by hands-on sessions using prototype tools and modules to guide participants through the full spectrum of financial stability analysis. In addition, the course addresses the critical aspect of how to effectively communicate the analytical outcomes and integrate them into the policy-making process. The program concludes with a roundtable discussion, offering a platform for participants to exchange insights and share experiences from their respective countries.