Greece's near-term economic outlook remains favorable, with real GDP sustaining its robust expansion. The public finances have further improved, with the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a firm downward trajectory, amid continued fiscal consolidation supported by strong progress in reducing tax evasion. Continuing the reform momentum will establish a solid foundation to address remaining crisis legacies and structural challenges arising from the rising yet still low level of overall investment, an unfavorable demographic outlook, and sluggish productivity growth. The right policy mix aimed at continuing fiscal consolidation in a growth-friendly manner, implementing ambitious reforms to address supply-side structural impediments, and further strengthening financial system resilience is essential to achieve sustainable growth in the medium to long term, while ensuring fiscal sustainability and safeguarding financial stability.
Robust Expansion with Declining Debt
1. The economy maintained its robust growth in 2024, supported by strong domestic demand. Real GDP expanded by 2.3 percent (year-on-year; y/y) in the first three quarters, buoyed by a strong pickup in NGEU-funded investment projects and robust private consumption underpinned by rising real income. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5 percent (seasonally adjusted) in 2024Q3, a historic low since 2009, and the vacancy rate has risen, reflecting labor shortages in a few sectors, particularly construction, tourism-related services, and high-skill sectors. The labor force participation rate has also gradually risen but remains among the lowest in EU, especially for women. Disinflation is underway at a gradual pace with headline and core inflation at 2.9 and 3.4 percent (y/y) in end-2024, respectively, amid persistent services inflation and wage growth. Along with strong economic activity, credit growth to the private sector has accelerated to 9.4 percent (y/y) in 2024Q4, accompanied by a continued increase in residential real estate prices. High domestic import demand, driven by investment, also contributed to the widening of the current account deficit to an estimated 6.9 percent of GDP in 2024.
2. Continued fiscal consolidation and sustained progress in much-needed structural reforms have strengthened the public finances, growth potential, and energy security. By end-2024, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to have decreased by more than 50 percentage points from its peak in 2020, supported by strong growth, high inflation, and substantial fiscal consolidation. While the labor tax wedge has been reduced by about 4½ percentage points since 2019, tax revenue has remained buoyant due to the authorities’ strong progress in reducing tax evasion. The abolishment of substantial pension penalties for retirees re-entering the labor market significantly increased the number of working pensioners in 2024. Following the significant expansion of solar and wind capacity in recent years, renewable sources now account for about 50 percent of total electricity generation.
3. The banking system has further enhanced its resilience with improved asset quality and capital adequacy. Asset quality in systemically important banks has improved further, with the NPL ratio dropping to around 3 percent in 2024Q3, facilitated by a government-sponsored securitization framework. Banks sustained high profits, which, along with capital instrument issuances, have boosted capital adequacy, although there is room for a further strengthening of voluntary capital buffers. The capital quality needs to be further improved as Deferred Tax Credit (DTC) still represents a substantial share of prudential capital. Given repayment of the Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) and meeting the Minimum Requirement for Own Funds and Eligible Liabilities (MREL) targets, liquidity and funding risks have been markedly reduced, with buffers well above prudential requirements and the EU average.
4. Real GDP growth is projected to remain high at 2.1 percent in 2025, before moderating in the medium term. Investment will continue to be a key driver, supported by NGEU-funded projects. Private consumption growth will remain solid, underpinned by favorable employment and income growth. With stabilizing global energy prices, headline inflation is expected to resume its downward trend, while core inflation will be more persistent due to services inflation and wage growth. With NGEU funding set to expire against the backdrop of demographic headwinds and sluggish productivity growth, GDP growth is forecast to moderate to lower levels around 1¼ percent in the medium term. The current account deficit is expected to narrow gradually below 4 percent of GDP in the medium term, as imports are expected to slow along with the winding down of NGEU-funded investment.
5. Risks to the growth outlook are balanced, while those to inflation are tilted upward. Potential headwinds include the growth slowdown in major euro area countries, a deterioration of regional conflicts, and global policy uncertainty. The acceleration of ambitious structural reforms could further improve growth prospects. Stronger and more persistent-than-expected wage growth could further fuel services inflation, potentially exacerbated by fluctuations in global and regional energy prices.
Growth-friendly Fiscal Consolidation
6. Continued fiscal consolidation would further strengthen public debt sustainability. The primary surplus is expected to remain high at around 2½ percent of GDP in 2025 as reduced revenue from an additional cut in social security contributions is expected to be broadly offset by revenue gains from reforms aimed at reducing tax evasion and increasing tax compliance. With the primary surplus remaining high at 2.3 percent of GDP in the medium term, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decrease further by about 25 percentage points to below 130 percent by 2030.
7. Additional expenditure measures that raise efficiency would further strengthen Greece’s public finances. Continued reforms are necessary to enhance efficient public investment planning and management, including through further strengthening centralized coordination and procurement. It is essential to protect non-pension social spending, such as healthcare and education, to promote inclusive growth, while enhancing efficiency. Excessive increases in pensions and public-sector wages should be resisted by implementing recent reforms, for example by ensuring that pension increases adhere to the established indexation formula without ad hoc adjustment.
8. There is room for additional revenue-enhancing reforms to further reduce tax evasion while enhancing the progressivity of the tax system. The Independent Authority for Public Revenue’s new medium-term strategy presents a good opportunity to further modernize tax administration and increase tax collection by continuing to leverage digitalization, which also reduces the burden of compliance. Tax policy reforms should focus on broadening the tax base and increasing tax progressivity. Additionally, inefficient tax expenditures, particularly the regressive VAT exemptions on some goods and services, should be phased out. The authorities should also consider raising carbon pricing, particularly in the transport and industry sectors, which can generate revenue for improved social protection and help address climate change and energy security by sharpening market incentives.
9. Fiscal space created by additional measures or better-than-expected performance should be used for debt reduction as well as crucial social and capital spending. While public debt remains high, there are significant infrastructure investment needs, especially for energy security and in support of the green transition. The authorities should also consider enhancing support for crucial social expenditures, such as healthcare, and education with increased targeting toward the poor and vulnerable to promote inclusive growth.
Structural reforms for boosting potential growth
10. Comprehensive reforms to address structural supply-side impediments would increase productivity and medium-term growth prospects.
11. Continued progress in green and digital transition will help achieve energy security and further boost productivity growth. Improving power connectivity with distant islands and enhancing energy efficiency in industries and transportation are essential for achieving the updated climate goals. Building on the ongoing increase in solar and wind capacity, scaling up grid networks and storage solutions will contribute to energy security by ensuring a stable power supply. More fundamentally, the completion of the EU-wide Energy Union, with a fully integrated and interconnected energy market, will remain crucial. Additionally, building on the commendable digitalization of public administration and the new national artificial intelligence strategy, the authorities should incentivize stronger adoption of digital technologies by the private sector to enhance productivity gains.
Strengthening financial system resilience
12. Monitoring of credit risks by banks should be further strengthened, while enhancing capital adequacy and its quality. With accelerating credit growth, supervisors should continue scrutinizing the extent to which banks deploy adequate and forward-looking provisioning policies, supported by adequate collateral valuations. Supervisors should also closely monitor how banks adapt their business models to the changing operating environment and further strengthen their risk management frameworks. Currently elevated bank profits should be primarily utilized to build capital buffers and improve the quality of capital. The recently announced initiative by banks to accelerate the amortization of DTCs will enhance bank resilience and reduce the bank-sovereign nexus.
13. The implementation of the recently adopted comprehensive macroprudential toolkit will further strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. Staff welcomes activation of borrower-based measures (BBMs) for mortgage loans and a positive neutral countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB). The BBMs, in the form of caps on loan-to-value (LTV) and debt service-to-income (DSTI) ratios, should help contain excessive mortgage leverage buildup while limiting banks’ exposure to the housing boom, although close monitoring is warranted. Given the still relatively low combined capital buffers, the authorities could consider recalibrating the CCyB rate over the medium term to align with increasing uncertainty and enhance resilience.
In closing, the mission would like to thank the Greek authorities and other stakeholders for their kind hospitality and for the open and productive discussions.
