Colombia: Selected Issues

IMF Staff Country Reports, May 29, 2018

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This Selected Issues paper examines the export growth in Colombia.
Colombian exports are heavily concentrated in commodities but the large real depreciation since 2015 offers an opportunity to grow nontraditional exports substantially.
Colombia’s comparative advantage in noncommodity products was weak in 2013-15, and export diversification was low, partly owing to the commodity price boom.
Exports grew moderately in recent years but in line with historical relationships given fundamentals.
The export outlook is positive. Given global growth assumptions, the IMF staff’s models predict acceleration in export growth.
The historical experience of commodity exporters that suffer large real depreciations also paints a positive picture.

Exports are heavily concentrated in commodities.
Comparative advantage in noncommodity products: weak in 2013-15.
Export diversification: low, partly owing to the commodity price boom.
Recent export growth: characterized as moderate and consistent with historical relationships and fundamentals.

Large real depreciation since 2015 identified as an opportunity to expand nontraditional exports.
IMF staff models, under given global growth assumptions, predict an acceleration in export growth.
Historical experience of commodity exporters that undergo large real depreciations suggests favorable prospects for export expansion.