Bolivia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 2, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Bolivia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: June 2, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229012669.002
Economic performance and near-term outlook
- Real gross domestic product growth moderated to 2.1 percent in the first three quarters of 2024.
- The slowdown was driven by:
- a decline in hydrocarbons production,
- a slowdown in services activity,
- a drop in soy crops and related manufacturing due to “El Niño” effects.
- The macro-economic outlook under current policies is assessed as unsustainable.
External position and reserves
- Usable foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain close to zero.
- Even if the central bank is able to liquefy its remaining gold reserves through collateralized borrowing, as envisaged in the 2025 budget, usable reserves would remain close to zero.
- A range of potential external or domestic shocks could trigger:
- capital outflows,
- a faster depreciation of the parallel exchange rate,
- higher inflation,
- reduced growth,
- and, ultimately, a disorderly adjustment.
Fiscal outlook and required consolidation
- At the core of any policy plan must be a credible, multi-year fiscal consolidation.
- Required policy measures include:
- a phase out of fuel subsidies,
- a lower wage bill,
- a rationalization of capital spending.
Structural reforms and competitiveness
- Urgent efforts are needed to:
- remove supply-side constraints to growth,
- lessen informality,
- strengthen governance and regulatory frameworks,
- improve public investment management,
- foster competitiveness.
Risks and scenarios
- Rising risks of a balance of payments and fiscal crisis under current policies.
- Potential shock transmission channels highlighted:
- capital outflows,
- parallel exchange rate depreciation,
- inflation acceleration,
- output losses,
- disorderly macroeconomic adjustment.
Content in this bundle
- 1bolea2025002 Print Pdf