The Quest for Lasting Stability -- IMF Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) -- April 2012
Global Financial Stability Report, April 11, 2012
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- Published: April 11, 2012
- Series: Global Financial Stability Report
Overview
- Publication: April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report.
- Scope: Assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets.
- Additional focus areas: Implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets; growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
- Components listed: Front Matter; Executive Summary; Preface; Chapters 1–4; Statistical Appendix.
Chapter 1. Global Financial Stability Assessment
- Purpose: Assesses changes in the global financial stability map.
- Key analytical element: Lays out three different scenarios for responses to existing policy challenges, notably those associated with the sovereign debt crisis.
- Notable boxes/tables/figures referenced:
- Box 1.1: Addressing the Euro Area Crisis and Moving Toward a More Integrated Union
- Tables: Indebtedness and Leverage in Selected Advanced Economies; Impact of European Bank Deleveraging under Three Policy Scenarios, through End-2013; Three Past Episodes of Household Deleveraging Associated with a Banking Crisis.
- Figures: Global Financial Stability Map; Global Financial Stability Map: Assessment of Risks and Conditions; Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion; Asset Price Performance since September 2011 GFSR; WEO Projections of 2012 GDP Growth in Selected Euro Area Countries; Policy Action to Entrench Stability and Avoid Downside Risks; External Positions and Gross Debt in Selected Euro Area Countries; Debt Burdens in Selected Advanced Economies, 2011; Household Net Financial Assets and Gross Debt, End-September 2011; Two Household Credit Cycles: 1980s and 2000s.
Chapter 2. Sovereigns, Banks, and Emerging Markets: Detailed Analysis & Policies
- Purpose: Provides detailed analysis of challenges facing sovereigns, banks, and emerging markets, with particular focus on bank deleveraging—assessing likely degree of deleveraging, evaluating probable consequences, and prescribing appropriate policy responses.
- Analytical items and special topics:
- Sections 2.1–2.7 covering European bank equities, business plans, comparison with European Banking Authority’s exercise, derivatives linkages, reversal of bank and portfolio inflows in emerging markets, eurobonds, and regulatory reforms update.
- Bank deleveraging strategy (2.8) and many metrics on sovereign and bank market indicators.
- Selected tables/figures mentioned (non-exhaustive):
- Sovereign Debt: Market and Vulnerability Indicators
- Share of Foreign Investors in Gross Refinancing Needs of Selected Euro Area Sovereigns under Three Policy Scenarios
- Amount of Additional Funding from Domestic Investors Required by Selected Euro Area Sovereigns under Three Policy Scenarios, 2012
- Average Rollover Rates for Bank Funding under Three Policy Scenarios, by Funding Source
- Projections for Government Debt and Average Interest Rate in Selected Advanced Economies, 2011–16
- Scenarios for Ratio of Government Interest Expenditure to GDP, Selected Advanced Economies
- Bank Leverage; Bank Loan-to-Deposit Ratios; Bank Price-to-Tangible Book Value; Bank Five-Year Credit Default Swap Spreads
- ECB Purchases of Government Bonds under Its SMP; ECB Lending and Bank Holdings of Euro Area Sovereign Bonds, December 2011–January 2012; Yields on Government Bonds of Italy and Spain, November 2011 and March 2012
- Euro Area Credit Supply Shock: Three Scenarios Relative to Historical Episodes
- Projections and scenarios for reductions in bank assets and supply of credit under three policy scenarios (current policies; weak policies; other scenario distinctions referenced).
Chapter 3. Safe Assets: Financial System Cornerstone?
- Purpose: Examines roles of safe assets, effects of regulatory, policy, and market distortions, and potential future pressure points.
- Analytical subsections and studies:
- 3.1 The Size of Sovereign Wealth Funds and Their Role in Safe Asset Demand
- 3.2 The Impact of Changes in the OTC Derivatives Market on the Demand for Safe Assets
- 3.3 Regulatory Risk Weighting of Banks' Government Debt Holdings: Potential Bias in Capital Adequacy Ratios
- 3.4 Impact of the Basel III Liquidity Coverage Ratio on the Demand for Safe Assets
- 3.5 The Impact of a Further Loss of Sovereign Debt Safety Illustrated in a Mean-Variance Framework
- 3.6 Conventional Monetary Policy and Its Demand for Safe Assets under Normal Conditions
- Data and indicators referenced:
- Historical Overview of S&P Sovereign Debt Ratings of Selected OECD Countries, 1970–January 2012
- Outstanding Amounts of Marketable Potentially Safe Assets
- Holdings of Government Securities Worldwide, by Investor Type, End-2010
- Central Bank Changes in Policies on Collateral and Purchases of Nongovernmental Securities since 2007
- Distribution of Selected Advanced and Emerging Market Economies, by Sovereign Debt Rating
- OECD Countries: General Government Gross Debt Relative to GDP, End-2011; OECD Countries: General Government Gross Debt, 2010–16
- Banks' Holdings of Sovereign Debt, by Selected Country, End-September 2011
- Government Securities Purchases and Holdings by Sectors; U.S. and U.K. Central Bank Holdings of Government Securities, by Remaining Maturity
Chapter 4. The Financial Impact of Longevity Risk
- Purpose: Highlights potentially very large financial implications of longevity risk (risk people may live longer than expected).
- Analytical subsections and case studies:
- 4.1 The Evolution of Life Expectancy in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries
- 4.2 Forecasting Longevity
- 4.3 An Example of a Longevity Shock
- 4.4 The Impact of Aging on the Macro Economy and on Financial Stability
- 4.5 Pension Reform in the Netherlands: Proactively Dealing with Longevity Risk
- 4.6 Recent Activity in the Dutch and U.K. Buy-Out, Buy-In, and Longevity Swap Markets
- Structures of longevity-related instruments: 4.7 Structure of Longevity Swap Transactions; 4.8 Structure of Longevity Bond Transaction
- Attitudes toward hedging pension and longevity risk: 4.9 Attitudes of Pension Plan Sponsors toward Hedging Pension Risk, by Type of Risk; 4.10 Attitudes of Potential Sellers of Longevity Risk toward Hedging
- Data tables and indicators:
- Pension Estimates and Population Estimates of Male Life Expectancy at Age 65 in Selected Advanced Economies
- Longevity Risk and Fiscal Challenges in Selected Countries
- Mortality Tables Used by Reporting Pension Plans
- Corporate Pension Funding Ratios and Discount Rate Assumptions for Selected Countries
- Increase in Actuarial Liabilities from Three-Year Increase in Longevity, by Discount Rate
- Increase in Costs of Maintaining Retirement Living Standards due to Aging and to Longevity Shock
Statistical Appendix and Methodological Notes
- Contents: Multiple statistical tables and market indicators, including Major Net Exporters and Importers of Capital in 2011; Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads; Selected Spreads; Implied Volatility Indices; Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios; United States: Corporate Bond Market; Euro Area: Corporate Bond Market; United States: Commercial Paper Market; Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2010; MSCI Equity Market Indices; Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Yield Spreads; External Financing in Emerging and Developing Economies: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans; Emerging Markets: Mutual Funds.
- Notes on symbols and definitions:
- ". . . " indicates data not available.
- "——" indicates figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or item does not exist.
- "-" used between years and months (for example, 2008–09 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered.
- "/" used between years (for example, 2008/09) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
- “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
- “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
- “n.a.” means not applicable.
- Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
- Editorial note: Effective with the April 2011 issue, the IMF’s Statistics Department assumed responsibility for compiling the Financial Soundness Indicators tables and they are no longer part of this appendix, though these tables continue to be linked to the GFSR Statistical Appendix on the IMF’s public website.
The Quest for Lasting Stability — April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report, International Monetary Fund
Content in this bundle
- Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map
- Figure 1.10. Two Household Credit Cycles: 1980s and 2000s
- figure1_2
- Figure1 3
- Figure 1.4. Asset Price Performance since September 2011 GFSR
- Figure 1.5. WEO Projections of 2012 GDP Growth in Selected Euro Area Countries
- Figure 1.7. External Positions and Gross Debt in Selected Euro Area Countries
- Figure 1.8. Debt Burdens in Selected Advanced Economies, 2011
- Figure 1.9. Household Net Financial Assets and Gross Debt, End-September 2011
- Table 1.1. Indebtedness and Leverage in Selected Advanced Economies
- Table1 2
- Table1 3
- Figure 2.1. Credit Default Swap Spreads in Selected Euro Area Government Bond Markets
- Figure 2.10. ECB Lending and Bank Holdings of Euro Area Sovereign Bonds, December 2011-January 2012
- Figure2 13
- Figure2 14
- Figure 2.15. Bank Leverage
- Figure 2.17. Bank Loan-to-Deposit Ratios
- Figure 2.17. Bank Price-to-Tangible Book Value
- Figure 2.19. U.S. Prime Money Market Fund Exposures to Banks
- Figure2 2
- Figure 2.20 Bank Debt Issuance
- Figure 2.21. Cumulative Euro Area Deposit Flows, 2011-12
- Figure 2.22. ECB Liquidty Facilities and Interbank Market Spreads
- Figure 2.23. Credit Grwoth to the Nonfinancial Private Sector
- Figure 2.24. Contribution to Euro Area Bank Lending Conditions for Companies
- Figure 2.25. Change in Banks' Foreign Private Sector Claims, 2011:Q3
- Figure 2.26. Contributions to Reduction in Aggregate Bank Leverage Ratio
- Figure 2.27. Contributions to Aggregate Reduction in Bank Assets, Three Policy Scenarios
- Figure 2.28. Factor Contributions to Aggregate Reduction in Bank Assets, Three Policy Scenarios
- Figure 2.29. Reduction in Supply of Credit by Sample Banks, Three Policy Scenarios
- Figure 2.3. Daily Trading Volume of Italian Sovereign Bonds
- figure2_30
- Figure 2.31. Reduction in Supply of Credit, by Banking System, Current Policies Scenario
- Figure 2.32. Euro Area Credit Supply Shock: Three Scenarios Relative to Historical Episoldes
- Figure 2.33. United States: Nonfinancial Corporate Borrowing and Return on Assets
- Figure 2.34. Euro Area: Nonfinancial Corporate Borrowing and Return on Assets
- figure2_35
- dataset overview
- figure2_37 dataset overview
- figure2_38
- Figure 2.39. Euro Area Bank Deleveraging in Emerging Markets, 2008 and 2011
- figure2_40
- Figure 2.41. Emerging Market Credit Cycle for Euro Area Banks and Other Banks, 2010-11
- figure2_42
- Figure 2.43. Emerging Europe: Cross-Border Bank Flows and Foreign Exchange Funding Costs
- figure2_44
- Figure2 45
- Figure2 46
- Figure 2.47. Emerging Europe: Sovereign Gross Financing Needs, 2012
- Figure 2.48. Net Flows into Emerging Market Funds, 2011-12
- Figure 2.49. Performance of Emerging Market Assets, 2011-12
- Figure 2.50. Changes in Residential Property Prices and Sales in China, 2011
- Figure 2.51. Ratio of House Price to Annual Household Income for Selected Cities, 2011
- Figure 2.52. China: Projected Nonperforming Loan Rates under Adverse Macroeconomic Scenarios
- Figure 2.53. Annual change in Private Credit, 2009-11
- Figure 2.54. Capital Generation under Three Policy Scenarios
- figure2_56
- Figure 2.57. Germany: Sovereign Market Indicators, March 2012
- Figure 2.58. Japan: Sovereign Market Indicators, March 2012
- Figure 2.59. ECB LTROs and Bank Term Funding
- Figure2 6
- Figure 2.7. Returns and Volatility of U.S. and European Sovereign Bonds, 2011
- Figure 2.8. Ten-Year Peripheral Euro Area Government Bond Spreads over AAA Core
- Figure 2.9. ECB Purchases of Government Bonds under its SMP
- Table 1. Determinants of Bank Equity Returns
- Table 2.1. Sovereign Market and Vulnerability Indicators
- Table 2.2. Refinancing Scenarios for European Sovereign Debt
- Table2 3
- Table 2.4. Capital Flow, Banking and Policy Indicators in Emerging and Other Markets
- Table 2.6. Weights Used in Calculation of the net Stable Funding Ratio
- Table 2.7. Average Rollover Rates for Bank Funding under Three Policy Scenarios
- Figure 3.12. OECD Countries: General Government Gross Debt Relative to GDP, End-2011
- Figure 3.8. Official Reserve Accumulation, by Instrument
- Figure 3.9. Government Securities Purchases and Holdings by Sectors
- dataset overview
- Figure4 4
- Figure 4.5. Index of Share of Pension Entitlements Linked to Life Expectancy in Selected Countries
- sa_figure1
- Figure 9. Twelve-Month Forward Price/Earnings Ratios
- Figure 7. United States: Corporate Bond Market
- Figure 8. Euro Area: Corporate Bond Market
- Figure 9. United States: Commercial Paper Market
- Table 1. Selected Indicators on the Size of the Capital Markets, 2010
- Table 10. Emerging Markets: Mutual Funds
- Table 2. MSCI Equity Market Indices
- Table 3. Emerging Market Bond Index: EMBI Global Yield Spreads
- Table 4. Emerging Market External Financing: Total Bonds, Equities, and Loans
- Table 5. Emerging Market External Financing: Bonds
- Table 6. Emerging Market External Financing: Equities
- Table 7. Emerging Market External Financing: Loans
- Table 8. Equity Valuation Measures: Dividend-Yield Ratios
- Table 9. Equity Valuation Measures: Price/Earnings Ratios
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- CHAPTER 3 SAfe ASSetS: finAnciAl SyStem cornerStone?
- The Financial Impact of Longevity Risk -- Chapter 4: Global Financial Stability Report; April 2012.
- The Quest for Lasting Stability -- Executive Summary: Global Stability Report; April 2012
- The Quest for Lasting Stability -- Preface: Global Stability Report; April 2012
- The Quest for Lasting Stability: Press Points for Chapters 1-2
- Press Points for Chapter 3
- Press Points for Chapter 4: THE FINANCIAL IMPACT OF LONGEVITY RISK
- Statistical Appendix, April 2012
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