Global Financial Stability Report October 2017: Is Growth at Risk?

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017

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Global Financial Stability Report October 2017: Is Growth at Risk?

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Bibliographic details

• Published: October 3, 2017

Executive summary and systemic assessment

• The global financial system "continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth."
• Global bank balance sheets are stronger because of "improved capital and liquidity buffers, amid tighter regulation and heightened market scrutiny."
• Some banks remain challenged by "legacy issues and business model challenges, where progress has been uneven."
• Continuing monetary accommodation "may lead to a continued search for yield where there is too much money chasing too few yielding assets, pushing investors beyond their traditional habitats."
• As the search for yield intensifies:
  • Vulnerabilities are shifting to the nonbank sector.
  • Market risks are rising.
  • There may be "a further compression of risk compensation in markets and higher leverage in the nonfinancial sector."
• Policymakers at both the national and global level "will have to strengthen the financial and macroeconomic policy mix."

Chapter 1 — Financial stability drivers and near-term risks

• Key dynamics:
  • Improved bank capital and liquidity buffers.
  • Tighter regulation and heightened market scrutiny.
  • Legacy bank problems and uneven progress on business-model adjustments.
  • Search-for-yield behavior incentivized by prolonged monetary accommodation.
• Risks highlighted:
  • Nonbank sector vulnerability buildup.
  • Rising market risk and compressed risk premia.
  • Potential for higher leverage in the nonfinancial sector.
• Policymaker implication:
  • Manage these challenges "carefully to avoid putting growth at risk."

Chapter 2 — Household debt and financial stability

• Cross-country patterns:
  • "Large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis."
• Median household debt-to-GDP ratios:
  • Among advanced economies, the median household debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 63 percent in 2016 from 52 percent in 2008.
  • Among emerging economies, it increased to 21 percent from 15 percent over the same period.
• Empirical findings:
  • There is a trade-off between a short-term boost to growth from higher household debt and a medium-term risk to macroeconomic and financial stability.
  • Higher household debt may result in lower growth, consumption, and employment and a greater risk of banking crises.
  • The trade-off is stronger when household debt is higher.
  • The adverse effects "can be significantly attenuated by a combination of good policies, institutions, and regulations."
• Policy recommendations and attenuating factors:
  • Appropriate macroprudential and financial sector policies.
  • Better financial supervision.
  • Less dependence on external financing.
  • Flexible exchange rates.
  • Lower income inequality.

Chapter 3 — Financial conditions and "growth at risk" measure

• Methodology and finding:
  • Develops "a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth."
  • Applies the measure to a set of 21 major advanced and emerging market economies.
  • Shows that changes in financial conditions "shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth."
• Policy relevance:
  • The new measure provides a tool to assess how financial conditions affect downside risks to GDP growth across the distribution.

Notable thematic findings and scenarios

• Search-for-yield and market functioning:
  • "Search for yield, asset valuations, and volatility" are central concerns as monetary accommodation persists.
• Structural and regional points:
  • Chapters and figures address bank profitability, insurer business models, central bank balance sheets, emerging market capital flows, corporate leverage, and Chinese banking system developments.
• Scenario analysis:
  • The report contains a "Global Financial Dislocation Scenario" and analysis of "Emerging Market Economy External Vulnerabilities and Corporate Leverage."

Source: Global Financial Stability Report October 2017: Is Growth at Risk? (October 2017)

Content in this bundle

• Figure 1.1.1. Financial Cycles and Output Gaps
  • Figure 1.1.1. Financial Cycles and Output Gaps (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.1.1. Financial Cycles and Output Gaps (CSV)
• Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions
  • Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions (CSV)
• Figure 1.10. Changes in Life Insurance Companies� Business Models
  • Figure 1.10. Changes in Life Insurance Companies� Business Models (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.10. Changes in Life Insurance Companies� Business Models (CSV)
• Fgiure 1.11. Life Insurers' Market Valuations and Risk Outlook
  • Fgiure 1.11. Life Insurers' Market Valuations and Risk Outlook (Markdown version)
  • Fgiure 1.11. Life Insurers' Market Valuations and Risk Outlook (CSV)
• Figure 1.12. Simulated Mark-to-Market Shocks to Assets and Liabilities
  • Figure 1.12. Simulated Mark-to-Market Shocks to Assets and Liabilities (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.12. Simulated Mark-to-Market Shocks to Assets and Liabilities (CSV)
• Figure 1-13. Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Sovereign Sector
  • Figure 1-13. Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Sovereign Sector (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1-13. Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Sovereign Sector (CSV)
• Figure 1.14. Policy Rates, 10-Year Government Bond Yields, and Term Premiums
  • Figure 1.14. Policy Rates, 10-Year Government Bond Yields, and Term Premiums (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.14. Policy Rates, 10-Year Government Bond Yields, and Term Premiums (CSV)
• dataset overview
  • dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • dataset overview (CSV)
• figure1-16
  • figure1-16 (Markdown version)
  • figure1-16 (CSV)
• Figure1 17
  • Figure1 17 (Markdown version)
  • Figure1 17 (CSV)
• Figure 1-18. Low-Income Country External Borrowing and Vulnerabilities
  • Figure 1-18. Low-Income Country External Borrowing and Vulnerabilities (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1-18. Low-Income Country External Borrowing and Vulnerabilities (CSV)
• figure1-19
  • figure1-19 (Markdown version)
  • figure1-19 (CSV)
• Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map Components
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map Components (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map Components (CSV)
• Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime
  • Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime (CSV)
• Figure 1.21. Leveraged and Volatility-Targeting Strategies
  • Figure 1.21. Leveraged and Volatility-Targeting Strategies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.21. Leveraged and Volatility-Targeting Strategies (CSV)
• Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks
  • Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks (CSV)
• Figure 1.23. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Sector Credit Trends
  • Figure 1.23. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Sector Credit Trends (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.23. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Sector Credit Trends (CSV)
• Figure 1.24. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Private Sector Borrowing
  • Figure 1.24. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Private Sector Borrowing (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.24. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Private Sector Borrowing (CSV)
• Figure 1.25. G20 Nonfinancial Private Sector Credit and Debt Service Ratios
  • Figure 1.25. G20 Nonfinancial Private Sector Credit and Debt Service Ratios (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.25. G20 Nonfinancial Private Sector Credit and Debt Service Ratios (CSV)
• Figure 1.26. Chinese Banking System Developments
  • Figure 1.26. Chinese Banking System Developments (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.26. Chinese Banking System Developments (CSV)
• Figure 1.27. China: Regulatory Tightening Has Helped Contain Financial Sector Risks
  • Figure 1.27. China: Regulatory Tightening Has Helped Contain Financial Sector Risks (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.27. China: Regulatory Tightening Has Helped Contain Financial Sector Risks (CSV)
• Figure 1.28. Chinese Banks: Financial Policy Tightening and Credit Growth Capacity
  • Figure 1.28. Chinese Banks: Financial Policy Tightening and Credit Growth Capacity (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.28. Chinese Banks: Financial Policy Tightening and Credit Growth Capacity (CSV)
• figure1-29 — Bank Profitability and Liquidity Indicators
  • figure1-29 — Bank Profitability and Liquidity Indicators (Markdown version)
  • figure1-29 — Bank Profitability and Liquidity Indicators (CSV)
• Figure 1.30. Global Financial Dislocation Scenario
  • Figure 1.30. Global Financial Dislocation Scenario (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.30. Global Financial Dislocation Scenario (CSV)
• Figure 1.31. Emerging Market Economy External Vulnerabilities and Corporate Leverage
  • Figure 1.31. Emerging Market Economy External Vulnerabilities and Corporate Leverage (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.31. Emerging Market Economy External Vulnerabilities and Corporate Leverage (CSV)
• Figure 1.4. Global Systemically Important Banks: Signficance and Business Model Snapshot
  • Figure 1.4. Global Systemically Important Banks: Signficance and Business Model Snapshot (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.4. Global Systemically Important Banks: Signficance and Business Model Snapshot (CSV)
• Figure 1.5. Global Systemically Important Banks: Capital, Liquidity, and Legacy Challenges
  • Figure 1.5. Global Systemically Important Banks: Capital, Liquidity, and Legacy Challenges (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.5. Global Systemically Important Banks: Capital, Liquidity, and Legacy Challenges (CSV)
• Figure 1.6. Global Systemically Important Banks: Market Activity
  • Figure 1.6. Global Systemically Important Banks: Market Activity (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.6. Global Systemically Important Banks: Market Activity (CSV)
• Figure 1.7. Global Systemically Important Banks' International Activity
  • Figure 1.7. Global Systemically Important Banks' International Activity (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.7. Global Systemically Important Banks' International Activity (CSV)
• Figure 1.8. Global Systemically Important Banks: Financial Performance Gaps
  • Figure 1.8. Global Systemically Important Banks: Financial Performance Gaps (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.8. Global Systemically Important Banks: Financial Performance Gaps (CSV)
• Figure 1.9. Life Insurance Companies’ Profitability and Capital
  • Figure 1.9. Life Insurance Companies’ Profitability and Capital (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.9. Life Insurance Companies’ Profitability and Capital (CSV)
• IMF Golbal Financial Stability Report October 2017: Assumptions and Conventions
  • IMF Golbal Financial Stability Report October 2017: Assumptions and Conventions (Markdown version)
  • IMF Golbal Financial Stability Report October 2017: Assumptions and Conventions (PDF)
• Chapter 1: Is Growth At Risk?
  • Chapter 1: Is Growth At Risk? (Markdown version)
  • Chapter 1: Is Growth At Risk? (PDF)
• IMF Global financial Stability Report October 2017: Executive Summary
  • IMF Global financial Stability Report October 2017: Executive Summary (Markdown version)
  • IMF Global financial Stability Report October 2017: Executive Summary (PDF)
• Foreword
  • Foreword (Markdown version)
  • Foreword (PDF)
• 106735_Figure 1.1.1
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• 106735_Figure 1.01
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• 106735_Figure 1.10
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• 106735_Figure 1.12
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• 106735_Figure 1.13
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• 106735_Figure 1.14
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• 106735_Figure 1.15
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• 106735_Figure 1.16
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• 106735_Figure 1.17
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• 106735_Figure 1.18
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• 106735_Figure 1.19
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• 106735_Figure 1.02
  • 106735_Figure 1.02 (Markdown version)
  • 106735_Figure 1.02 (PDF)
• Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime
  • Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime (CSV)
• 106735_Figure 1.21
  • 106735_Figure 1.21 (Markdown version)
  • 106735_Figure 1.21 (PDF)
• Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks
  • Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks (Markdown version)
  • Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks (CSV)
• 106735_Figure 1.23
  • 106735_Figure 1.23 (Markdown version)
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• 106735_Figure 1.24
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• 106735_Figure 1.25
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• 106735_Figure 1.26
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• 106735_Figure 1.27
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• 106735_Figure 1.28
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• 106735_Figure 1.29
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• 106735_Figure 1.03
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• 106735_Figure 1.30
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• 106735_Figure 1.31
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• 106735_Figure 1.04
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• 106735_Figure 1.05
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• 106735_Figure 1.06
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• 106735_Figure 1.07
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• 106735_Figure 1.08
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• 106735_Figure 1.09
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• Annex Figure 2.1.1. Loan Characteristics, Rules, and Regulations
  • Annex Figure 2.1.1. Loan Characteristics, Rules, and Regulations (Markdown version)
  • Annex Figure 2.1.1. Loan Characteristics, Rules, and Regulations (CSV)
• Figure 2.1.1. Long-Term per Capita GDP Growth and Household Debt
  • Figure 2.1.1. Long-Term per Capita GDP Growth and Household Debt (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.1.1. Long-Term per Capita GDP Growth and Household Debt (CSV)
• boxfigure2-3
  • boxfigure2-3 (Markdown version)
  • boxfigure2-3 (CSV)
• Figure 2.4.2. Consumption Response to House Prices
  • Figure 2.4.2. Consumption Response to House Prices (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.4.2. Consumption Response to House Prices (CSV)
• boxfigure2-5
  • boxfigure2-5 (Markdown version)
  • boxfigure2-5 (CSV)
• Figure 2.1. Household Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies
  • Figure 2.1. Household Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.1. Household Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies (CSV)
• Figure 2.10. The Impact of Household Debt by Country and Institutional Factors
  • Figure 2.10. The Impact of Household Debt by Country and Institutional Factors (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.10. The Impact of Household Debt by Country and Institutional Factors (CSV)
• Figure2 3
  • Figure2 3 (Markdown version)
  • Figure2 3 (CSV)
• Figure 2.4. Household Debt: Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data
  • Figure 2.4. Household Debt: Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.4. Household Debt: Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data (CSV)
• Figure2 5
  • Figure2 5 (Markdown version)
  • Figure2 5 (CSV)
• Figure 2.6. Effects of Household Debt on GDP Growth: Robustness Tests
  • Figure 2.6. Effects of Household Debt on GDP Growth: Robustness Tests (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.6. Effects of Household Debt on GDP Growth: Robustness Tests (CSV)
• Figure 2.7. Micro-Level Evidence Corroborating the Macro Impact
  • Figure 2.7. Micro-Level Evidence Corroborating the Macro Impact (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.7. Micro-Level Evidence Corroborating the Macro Impact (CSV)
• Figure 2.8. Banking Crises and the Role of Household Debt
  • Figure 2.8. Banking Crises and the Role of Household Debt (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.8. Banking Crises and the Role of Household Debt (CSV)
• Figure 2.9. Bank Equity Returns and Household Debt
  • Figure 2.9. Bank Equity Returns and Household Debt (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.9. Bank Equity Returns and Household Debt (CSV)
• Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Chapter Two: Household Debt And Financial Stability
  • Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Chapter Two: Household Debt And Financial Stability (Markdown version)
  • Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Chapter Two: Household Debt And Financial Stability (PDF)
• Summary
  • Summary (Markdown version)
  • Summary (PDF)
• 106735_Annex Figure 2.1.1
  • 106735_Annex Figure 2.1.1 (Markdown version)
  • 106735_Annex Figure 2.1.1 (PDF)
• Figure 2.4.1 and Figure 2.4.2
  • Figure 2.4.1 and Figure 2.4.2 (Markdown version)
  • Figure 2.4.1 and Figure 2.4.2 (PDF)
• 106735_Figure 2.1.1
  • 106735_Figure 2.1.1 (Markdown version)
  • 106735_Figure 2.1.1 (PDF)
• 106735_Figure 2.2.1 CMYK
  • 106735_Figure 2.2.1 CMYK (Markdown version)
  • 106735_Figure 2.2.1 CMYK (PDF)
• 106735_Figure 2.3.1
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• 106735_Figure 2.5.1
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• 106735_Figure 2.01
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• 106735_Figure 2.10
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• 106735_Figure 2.02
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• 106735_Figure 2.03
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• 106735_Figure 2.08
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• 106735_Figure 2.09
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• Annex 3.1. Financial Vulnerabilities and Growth Hysteresis in Structural Models
  • Annex 3.1. Financial Vulnerabilities and Growth Hysteresis in Structural Models (Markdown version)
  • Annex 3.1. Financial Vulnerabilities and Growth Hysteresis in Structural Models (CSV)
• Dataset overview
  • Dataset overview (Markdown version)
  • Dataset overview (XLSX)
• Figure 3.1. Tighter Financial Conditions Forecast Greater Downside Tail Risk to Global Growth
  • Figure 3.1. Tighter Financial Conditions Forecast Greater Downside Tail Risk to Global Growth (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.1. Tighter Financial Conditions Forecast Greater Downside Tail Risk to Global Growth (CSV)
• Figure3 2
  • Figure3 2 (Markdown version)
  • Figure3 2 (CSV)
• Figure 3.3. In Emerging Market Economies, Changes in Financial Conditions Also Affect Upside Risks
  • Figure 3.3. In Emerging Market Economies, Changes in Financial Conditions Also Affect Upside Risks (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.3. In Emerging Market Economies, Changes in Financial Conditions Also Affect Upside Risks (CSV)
• Figure 3.4. Higher Price of Risk is a Significant Predictor of Downside Growth Risks within One Year
  • Figure 3.4. Higher Price of Risk is a Significant Predictor of Downside Growth Risks within One Year (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.4. Higher Price of Risk is a Significant Predictor of Downside Growth Risks within One Year (CSV)
• Figure 3.5. Rising Leverage Signals Higher Downside Growth Risks at Longer Time Horizons
  • Figure 3.5. Rising Leverage Signals Higher Downside Growth Risks at Longer Time Horizons (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.5. Rising Leverage Signals Higher Downside Growth Risks at Longer Time Horizons (CSV)
• Figure 3.6. Waning Global Risk Appetite Signals Imminent Downside Risks to Growth
  • Figure 3.6. Waning Global Risk Appetite Signals Imminent Downside Risks to Growth (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.6. Waning Global Risk Appetite Signals Imminent Downside Risks to Growth (CSV)
• Figure3 7
  • Figure3 7 (Markdown version)
  • Figure3 7 (CSV)
• Figure 3.8. In-Sample and Recursive Out of Sample Quantile Forecasts: One-Quarter-Ahead
  • Figure 3.8. In-Sample and Recursive Out of Sample Quantile Forecasts: One-Quarter-Ahead (Markdown version)
  • Figure 3.8. In-Sample and Recursive Out of Sample Quantile Forecasts: One-Quarter-Ahead (CSV)
• figure3-9
  • figure3-9 (Markdown version)
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• Chapter 3: Financial Conditions and Growth At Risk
  • Chapter 3: Financial Conditions and Growth At Risk (Markdown version)
  • Chapter 3: Financial Conditions and Growth At Risk (PDF)
• Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Summary: Financial Conditions And Growth At Risk
  • Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Summary: Financial Conditions And Growth At Risk (Markdown version)
  • Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Summary: Financial Conditions And Growth At Risk (PDF)
• annexfigures1-4
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• 106735_Figure 3.1
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• 106735_Figure 3.2
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• 106735_Figure 3.3
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• 106735_Figure 3.4
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• 106735_Figure 3.5
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• 106735_Figure 3.6
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• 106735_Figure 3.7
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• 106735_Figure 3.8
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• 106735_Figure 3.9
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References

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• Financial Stability Improves, But Rising Vulnerabilities Could Put Growth at Risk
• Rising Household Debt: What It Means for Growth and Stability
• How Policy Makers Can Better Predict a Downturn – and Prepare
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
• Global Economy in the Shadow of War
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr
• Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm
• Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo
• Asia and Pacific
• Europe
• Middle East and Central Asia
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Western Hemisphere
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb
• Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development
• More Publications
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