Emerging Market Volatility: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum

By Ratna Sahay, Vivek B. Arora, Athanasios V Arvanitis, Hamid Faruqee, Papa M N'Diaye, Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

October 2, 2014

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Ratna Sahay, Vivek B. Arora, Athanasios V Arvanitis, Hamid Faruqee, Papa M N'Diaye, and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli. Emerging Market Volatility: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2014) accessed September 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Staff Discussion Note represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent IMF views or IMF policy. The views expressed herein should be attributed to the authors and not to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Staff Discussion Notes are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.

Subject: Balance of payments, Bond yields, Capital flows, Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Foreign exchange, Foreign exchange intervention, Monetary policy, Unconventional monetary policies

Keywords: Asset price, Bond yields, Capital flow measures, Capital flows, Emerging market, Exchange rate, Exchange rates, Foreign exchange intervention, Global, Growth prospect, IMF staff, Macroprudential, Market, Market shock, Monetary policy, Monetary policy announcement, SDN, Tapering, Top emerging market recipient, Unconventional monetary policies, Unconventional monetary policy, Volatility

Publication Details

Pages:

29
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Staff Discussion Notes No. 2014/009
Stock No:

SDNEA2014009
ISBN:

9781498318204
ISSN:

2617-6750

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