Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
Staff Discussion Notes, July 20, 2016
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- Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Ruben V Atoyan, Lone Engbo Christiansen, Allan Dizioli, Christian H Ebeke, Nadeem Ilahi, Anna Ilyina, Gil Mehrez, Haonan Qu, Faezeh Raei, Alaina P Rhee, Daria V Zakharova
- Published: July 20, 2016
- Series: Staff Discussion Notes
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475576368.006
Overview and Scope
- Title: Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
- Publication type: Staff Discussion Notes No. 2016/007
- Authors: Ruben V Atoyan, Lone Engbo Christiansen, Allan Dizioli, Christian H Ebeke, Nadeem Ilahi, Anna Ilyina, Gil Mehrez, Haonan Qu, Faezeh Raei, Alaina P Rhee, Daria V Zakharova
- Publication date: July 20, 2016
- Pages: 48
- Volume: 2016
- Issue: 007
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475576368.006
- ISBN: 9781475576368
- ISSN: 2617-6750
- Subject tags: Balance of payments, Income, Labor, Labor force participation, Migration, National accounts, Population and demographics, Remittances, Skilled labor
- Keywords highlighted by the paper: Baltics, CESEE country, CESEE emigrant, CESEE emigration, convergence, Eastern Europe, Emigration, emigration from CESEE, EU migration scenario, EU policy scenario, Europe, growth, impact of emigration, Income, income convergence, labor force, Labor force participation, Migration, migration flow, remittance inflow, remittances, SDN, Skilled labor, UN migration scenario, Western Europe
Key Findings: Macroeconomic and Labor Market Impacts
- Emigration scale and period:
- Large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years.
- Overall impact assessment:
- Emigration likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries, and the EU as a whole.
- The impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative.
- Labor market and productivity effects:
- Labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth.
- Labor outflows pushed up wages in sending countries.
- Emigration slowed growth and income convergence to advanced Europe.
- Remittances and macroeconomic effects:
- Remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption, and investment in some countries.
- Remittances also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competitiveness.
- Demographics and fiscal impacts:
- Departure of the young added to fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe.
Analysis Approaches and Scenarios (as described)
- The paper examines effects on growth and income convergence to advanced Europe.
- It considers labor outflows with emphasis on skilled-worker emigration.
- It analyzes remittance inflows’ dual role in supporting domestic activity and creating adverse incentives and exchange rate pressures.
- The paper discusses demographic consequences linked to youth departure and aging populations.
- The paper outlines EU-wide initiatives and sending-country policy recommendations to mitigate negative impacts.
Policy Conclusions and Recommendations
- The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies.
- It also identifies EU-wide initiatives that could support these mitigation efforts.
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Source: Staff Discussion Note "Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe", July 20, 2016; Staff Discussion Notes No. 2016/007; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475576368.006
Content in this bundle
- Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe; IMF Staff Discussion Note 16/07; July 20, 2016