The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa


Bjoern Rother ; Gaelle Pierre ; Davide Lombardo ; Risto Herrala ; Priscilla Toffano ; Erik Roos ; Allan G Auclair ; Karina Manasseh

Publication Date:

September 16, 2016

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Disclaimer: This Staff Discussion Note represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent IMF views or IMF policy. The views expressed herein should be attributed to the authors and not to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Staff Discussion Notes are published to elicit comments and to further debate.


In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.


Staff Discussion Notes No. 2016/008



Blog: The Calculus of Conflict in the Middle East

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Publication Date:

September 16, 2016



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