Do Taxes Matter for Long-Run Growth? Harberger's Superneutrality Conjecture
August 1, 1995
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Summary
Harberger’s superneutrality conjecture contends that, although in theory the mix of direct and indirect taxes affects investment and growth, in practice growth effects of taxation are negligible. This paper provides evidence in support of this view by testing the predictions of endogenous growth models driven by human capital accumulation. The theoretical analysis highlights implications of different taxes for growth and investment in these models. The empirical work is based on cross-country regressions and numerical simulations, using a new methodology for estimating aggregate effective tax rates. Results show significant investment effects from income and consumption taxes that are consistent with small growth effects. The results are robust to the introduction of other growth determinants.
Subject: Consumption taxes, Human capital, Income and capital gains taxes, Income tax systems, Labor, Revenue administration, Taxes
Keywords: consumption tax, Consumption taxes, Europe, factor income, growth effect, growth theory, Human capital, Income and capital gains taxes, income tax revenue data, Income tax systems, income tax tax revenue, investment rate, labor income, physical capital, rate of growth, revenue data, revenue statistics, time series, WP
Pages:
42
Volume:
1995
DOI:
Issue:
079
Series:
Working Paper No. 1995/079
Stock No:
WPIEA0791995
ISBN:
9781451955798
ISSN:
1018-5941
Notes
This paper was prepared for a special issue of the Journal of Public Economics in honor of Arnold Harberger.
