Foreign Currency Credit Ratings for Emerging Market Economies
December 1, 2001
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Summary
This paper examines how ratings for emerging market economies have been set. Given the high degree of autocorrelation in ratings, we use estimators that yield consistent parameters in the presence of such correlation. The results show that rating changes for emerging market economies have been dominated by variables different from those suggested by the literature. We also conclude that some deterioration in the ratings was warranted during the recent crisis episodes in view of the behavior of economic fundamentals, but that the agencies overreacted for several key countries. We find evidence of a structural break: since the Asian crisis period, ratings have been influenced by reserves in relation to short-term debt.
Subject: Asset and liability management, Credit ratings, Debt rescheduling, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial crises, Financial markets, Inflation, Money, Prices
Keywords: Asia and Pacific, credit rating, Credit ratings, Debt rescheduling, default rating c, economic crises., Emerging and frontier financial markets, emerging market, Emerging markets, estimate, estimation technique, estimations of rating, foreign currency credit ratings, Inflation, model estimate, POLS estimation, rating, rating agency, rating change, ratio, Standard and Poor's, WP
Pages:
23
Volume:
2001
DOI:
Issue:
191
Series:
Working Paper No. 2001/191
Stock No:
WPIEA1912001
ISBN:
9781451859713
ISSN:
1018-5941
