Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates : Short-Run Evidence From Four Transition Countries

Author/Editor:

Ales Bulir

Publication Date:

February 1, 2004

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The paper looks at the hypothesis that financial market liberalization can create a basis for more stable exchange rates, as deviations of exchange rates from equilibrium levels bring forth stabilizing flows of liquidity. This "endogenous liquidity" hypothesis suggests that opening financial markets militates in favor of exchange rate flexibility by increasing the viability of a floating regime, as well as making it more difficult to maintain a peg. The paper examines this hypothesis in a sample of four transition economies and finds that exchange rates tend to return faster to their Hodrick-Prescott-based values where markets are liberalized. The results suggest that early and successful foreign exchange liberalization pays off in terms of depth of the market and, hence, faster adjustment of exchange rate to shocks. Moreover, it implies that central banks should not be overly concerned with short-run volatility of their national exchange rates, given the self-correcting tendencies.

Series:

Working Paper No. 04/35

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

February 1, 2004

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451845389/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0352004

Format:

Paper

Pages:

32

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org