IMF Working Papers

PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate

By Haroon Mumtaz, Jean Imbs, Morten O. Ravn, Helene Rey

April 1, 2003

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Haroon Mumtaz, Jean Imbs, Morten O. Ravn, and Helene Rey. PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2003) accessed November 8, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When heterogeneity is properly taken into account, estimates of the real exchange rate half-life fall dramatically, to little more than one year, or significantly below Rogoff's "consensus view" of three to five years. We show that corrected estimates are consistent with plausible nominal rigidities, thus, arguably, solving the PPP puzzle.

Subject: Econometric analysis, Estimation techniques, Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Price indexes, Prices, Purchasing power parity, Real exchange rates

Keywords: Aggregation, Arellano-Bond estimator, Estimation procedure, Estimation techniques, Europe, Exchange rate, Exchange rates, Goods price, Half-life estimate, Least squares, Mean reversion, OLS estimate, OLS estimator, Panel estimation, Parameter heterogeneity, Price indexes, Purchasing power parity, Real exchange rate persistence, Real exchange rates, Reversion increase, Time series, Traded goods, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    42

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2003/068

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA0682003

  • ISBN:

    9781451849011

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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