Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions

January 4, 2013

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Serhan Cevik, and Mohammad Rahmati. Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus: An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2013) accessed September 18, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960–2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of moments. In addition to an array of demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional variables, we introduce an estimated risk of conflict recurrence as an explanatory variable in the growth regression, because post-conflict countries have a tendency to relapse into subsequent conflicts even years after the cessation of violence. The empirical results show that domestic factors, including the estimated probability of conflict recurrence, as well as a range of external variables, contribute to post-conflict economic performance.

Subject: Environment, Foreign aid, Human capital, International trade, Labor, National accounts, Natural resources, Personal income, Terms of trade

Keywords: Africa, Civil conflict, Conflict recurrence risk, Dynamic panel estimation, Geography, Global, Growth, Growth rate, Human capital, Institutions, Intra-state conflict, Middle East, Natural resource, Natural resources, Opportunity cost, Per capita income, Personal income, Physical capital, Risk of conflict recurrence, Structural reforms, Sub-Saharan Africa, Terms of trade, Time series, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

49
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2013/002
Stock No:

WPIEA2013002
ISBN:

9781475531152
ISSN:

1018-5941

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