Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)
March 1, 2009
Download PDF
More Formats on IMF eLibrary
Order a Print CopyDisclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary
This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.
Subject: Communications in revenue administration, Economic forecasting, Inflation, Labor, National accounts
Keywords: central bank, data problem, exchange rate, IFT regime, output gap, staff motivation, WP
Pages:
67
Volume:
2009
DOI:
Issue:
065
Series:
Working Paper No. 2009/065
Stock No:
WPIEA2009065
ISBN:
9781451872125
ISSN:
1018-5941
