Exchange-Rate Dark Matter

Author/Editor:

Martin D Evans

Publication Date:

March 1, 2012

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Dark matter accounts for 83 percent of the matter in the universe and plays a central role in cosmology modeling. This paper argues that an analogous form of dark matter plays a similarly important role in international macroeconomics. Exchange-rate dark matter is invisible, but its existence can be inferred from observations on real exchange rates and interest rates. I first show that dark matter is the dominant driver of short- and medium-term changes in real exchange rates for the G-7 countries; accounting for more than 90 percent of the variance at the five-year horizon. I then develop a model in which risk shocks account for dark matter's role as a driver of exchange-rate dynamics and other macro variables.

Series:

Working Paper No. 12/66

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2012

ISBN/ISSN:

9781463938437/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2012066

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

63

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