Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Policy Credibility

Author/Editor:

International Monetary Fund

Publication Date:

April 1, 2009

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper presents a model for Inflation Targeting under imperfect policy credibility. It modifies the conventional model in three ways: an endogenous policy credibility process, by which monetary policy can gain or lose credibility over time; non-linearities in the inflation equation and in the credibility generating process; and an explicit loss function. The model highlights problems associated with the practice of setting a series of rigid near-term inflation targets. Also, unfavorable supply shocks pose a difficult problem: an appropriate response involves an interest rate increase, some loss of output, and a period of increased inflation. A delayed response can result in a prolonged period of stagflation.

Series:

Working Paper No. 09/94

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

April 1, 2009

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451872415/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2009094

Format:

Paper

Pages:

30

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org