IMF Working Papers

Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries

Author/Editor:

Vincent Belinga ; Dora Benedek ; Ruud A. de Mooij ; John Norregaard

Publication Date:

June 19, 2014

Electronic Access:

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Summary:

By how much will faster economic growth boost government revenue? This paper estimates short- and long-run tax buoyancy in OECD countries between 1965 and 2012. We find that, for aggregate tax revenues, short-run tax buoyancy does not significantly differ from one in the majority of countries; yet, it has increased since the late 1980s so that tax systems have generally become better automatic stabilizers. Long-run buoyancy exceeds one in about half of the OECD countries, implying that GDP growth has helped improve structural fiscal deficit ratios. Corporate taxes are by far the most buoyant, while excises and property taxes are the least buoyant. For personal income taxes and social contributions, short- and long-run buoyancies have declined since the late 1980s and have, on average, become lower than one.

Series:

Working Paper No. 14/110

Subject:

Australia Austria Automatic stabilizers Belgium Canada Chile Corporate taxes Czech Republic Denmark Econometric models Economic growth Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Japan Korea, Republic of Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway OECD Personal income taxes Poland Portugal Property taxes Regression analysis Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Tax revenue Tax systems Turkey United Kingdom United States