What Makes Growth Sustained?

By Jonathan David Ostry, Andrew Berg, Jeromin Zettelmeyer

March 1, 2008

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Format: Chicago

Jonathan David Ostry, Andrew Berg, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. What Makes Growth Sustained?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2008) accessed October 6, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define "growth spells:" periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or with the end of the sample. Growth spells tend to be shorter in African and Latin American countries than elsewhere. We find that growth duration is positively related to: the degree of equality of the income distribution; democratic institutions; export orientation (with higher propensities to export manufactures, greater openness to FDI, and avoidance of exchange rate overvaluation favorable for duration); and macroeconomic stability (with even moderate instability curtailing growth duration).

Subject: Exports, Income, Income distribution, Income inequality, Terms of trade

Keywords: Current account, Developing country, Exchange rate, Hazard ratio, Terms of trade shock, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

33
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2008/059
Stock No:

WPIEA2008059
ISBN:

9781451869217
ISSN:

1018-5941

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