IMF Working Papers

The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method

By Swarnali A Hannan

March 9, 2017

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Swarnali A Hannan. The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2017) accessed October 14, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

The paper employs synthetic control method (SCM) to determine the impact of trade agreements for 64 Latin American country pairs in the period 1989-1996. The results suggest that trade agreements have markedly boosted exports in Latin America, on an average by 76.4 percentage points over ten years. However, there is variation across countries and agreements. The export gains due to trade agreements are lower than the world average comprising 104 country pairs in the period 1983-1995.

Subject: Customs unions, Export performance, Exports, International trade, North American Free Trade Agreement, Trade agreements

Keywords: Base effect, Central America, Country pair, Customs unions, Dynamic emerging market trade hub, Export boost, Export gain, Export gains of Mercosur, Export growth, Export performance, Exports, Global, International trade flows, Market trade hub, North America, North American Free Trade Agreement, Partner countries' share, Region heterogeneity, Synthetic control method, Trade agreements, Trade crisis, Trade openness, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    29

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2017/045

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2017045

  • ISBN:

    9781475585544

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941