Independent Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance

IMF Working Papers, March 23, 2018

Source details

Authors: Roel M. W. J. Beetsma, Xavier Debrun, Xiangming Fang, Young-Bae Kim, Victor Duarte Lledo, Samba Mbaye, Xiaoxiao Zhang
Published: March 23, 2018
Series: IMF Working Papers
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484348284.001

Countries increasingly rely on independent fiscal councils to constrain policymakers’ discretion and curb the bias towards excessive deficits and pro-cyclical policies.
The analysis uses the IMF Fiscal Council Dataset, latest vintage 2016.
The study focuses on two tasks expected to strengthen fiscal performance:
- the preparation or assessment of forecasts, and
- the monitoring of compliance with fiscal rules.

Tentative econometric evidence suggests:
- the presence of a fiscal council is associated with more accurate and less optimistic fiscal forecasts.
- the presence of a fiscal council is associated with greater compliance with fiscal rules.

Subject: Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal councils; Fiscal policy; Fiscal rules; Fiscal stance; Public financial management (PFM)
Keywords: absolute value; bond yield; Budget planning and preparation; council interaction; EU law; Europe; fiscal council; Fiscal councils; fiscal forecasts; fiscal rule compliance; Fiscal rules; Fiscal stance; Global; government effectiveness; IFC dummy; independent fiscal councils; interest rate; output gap; public finance; WP

Publication type: IMF Working Papers
Preview citation provided in Chicago format, including an access date of 9/17/2026 in the cited preview.

Independent Fiscal Councils: Recent Trends and Performance, IMF Working Paper No. 2018/068