Housing Price, Credit, and Output Cycles: How Domestic and External Shocks Impact Lithuania's Credit
IMF Working Papers, July 12, 2018
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- Housing Price, Credit, and Output Cycles: How Domestic and External Shocks Impact Lithuania's Credit
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Iacovos Ioannou
- Published: July 12, 2018
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484367513.001
Summary
- Lithuania’s current credit cycle highlights the strong link between housing prices and credit.
- The study analyzes the main features of credit, housing price, and output cycles in Baltic and Nordic countries during 1995-2017.
- The analysis finds a high degree of synchronization between Lithuania’s credit and housing price cycles.
- Panel regressions show a strong correlation between a credit upturn and housing price upturn.
- Panel VAR suggests that shocks in housing prices, credit, and output within and outside Lithuania strongly impact Lithuania’s credit.
Major findings
- High degree of synchronization between Lithuania’s credit and housing price cycles.
- Strong correlation identified between credit upturns and housing price upturns (panel regressions).
- Panel VAR evidence that shocks in housing prices, credit, and output—both domestic and external—strongly affect Lithuania’s credit.
Scope and data
- Countries studied: Baltic and Nordic countries.
- Time period: 1995-2017.
- Pages: 55.
- Series: Working Paper No. 2018/160.
- Issue: 160.
- Volume: 2018.
Publication identifiers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484367513.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2018160
- ISBN: 9781484367513
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Source: Iacovos Ioannou, "Housing Price, Credit, and Output Cycles: How Domestic and External Shocks Impact Lithuania's Credit", IMF Working Papers 2018, 160 (2018).